Carbonates in soils may act as a potential source of CO₂ efflux from calcareous soils to the atmosphere. However, its seasonal dynamics and relationships with soil temperature or soil moisture are not well‐understood. A 5‐yr warming experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of symmetric (all season) and asymmetric (seasonal) warming on soil organic fraction (SOC)‐derived efflux and carbonate‐derived CO₂ efflux (partitioned by δ¹³C signature) from a calcareous soil in the karst region of southwest China. In region where precipitation mostly falls during summer, an average of 2.0°C warming under both symmetric and asymmetric warming scenarios produced 6–34% and 11–14% increases in the SOC‐derived efflux and carbonate‐derived efflux, respectively. The SOC‐derived efflux in the symmetric warming scenario was 1.6 times that of the asymmetric warming scenarios, but no changes were found for the carbonate‐derived efflux. The SOC‐derived efflux was positively correlated with both soil temperature and soil moisture, suggesting an entailment with biotic processes. In contrast, the carbonate‐derived efflux was positively correlated with soil temperature, but was poorly correlated with soil moisture. Thus, the seasonal dynamics of the carbonate‐derived efflux in calcareous soils were likely driven by abiotic processes.

The Tibetan grassland is the principal ecosystem in a high-altitude, ecologically fragile region, providing vital services for biodiversity and local livelihoods. Constructive grass species play a pivotal role in maintaining the structure and function of grassland ecosystems. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive dataset of the spatial distribution of all constructive grass species (44) in Tibetan grasslands under current (2024) and four future (2060) climate scenarios by leveraging species distribution models and high-resolution ecological data. Our dataset encompasses each individual constructive grass species habitat distribution, including expansion, contraction, and stability. This dataset will be applied to climate-change impact assessment on individual species, grassland-type shift projection, and multi-stressor ecosystem-dynamics evaluation. It is essential for supporting grassland management, biodiversity conservation, and livestock production in high-altitude grassland ecosystems.

Global climate change exerts great effort for plants distributions. However the response of Prunus mira Koehn, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors on the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn in context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict the suitable habitats for Prunus mira Koehn. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, warming can facilitate the growth of Prunus mira Koehn. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from − 2.6°C to 2.7°C, it is most conducive to the growth of Prunus mira Koehn. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for Prunus mira Koehn is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of Prunus mira Koehn. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species.

Tibet’s grasslands, the region’s dominant ecosystem, are vital for pastoral livelihoods and wildlife habitats. However, their future distribution under combined climate change and anthropogenic pressures remains poorly understood. This study presents an innovative species-level modeling framework to project Tibetan grassland dynamics through the simulated future spatial distribution of 44 constructive grass species. Our results show a net decline of 4.6% in grassland area by 2060, characterized by a 6.7% reduction in productive grasslands yet a 6.6% expansion of wildlife-habitat grasslands. Projected losses are greater under 2°C/century or 5°C/century warming than under intermediate warming trajectories (3°C–4.1°C/century). These findings suggest climate change will challenge pastoral productivity while benefiting Tibetan wildlife, offering key insights for navigating the complex trade-off between sustaining pastoralism and preserving biodiversity in high-altitude grassland ecosystems.