The intensifying global climate warming caused by human activities poses severe challenges to ecosystem stability. Constructing an ecological security pattern can identify ecological land supply and an effective spatial distribution baseline and provide a scientific basis for safeguarding regional ecological security. This study analyzes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 for Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. The PLUS model was utilized to project land-use potential for the year 2030. The InVEST model was employed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of habitat quality in the study area for both 2020 and 2030, thereby pinpointing ecological sources. Critical ecological restoration zones were delineated by identifying ecological corridors, pinch points, and barrier points through the application of the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model and circuit theory. By comparing ecological security patterns (ESPs) in 2020 and 2030, we proposed a dynamic restoration framework and optimization recommendations based on habitat quality changes and ESPs. The results indicate significant land-use changes in the eastern part of Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2020 to 2030, with large-scale conversion of grasslands into bare land, farmland, and artificial surfaces. The ecological security pattern is threatened by risks like the deterioration of habitat quality, diminished ecological sources as well as pinch points, and growing barrier points. Optimizing the layout of ecological resources, strengthening barrier zone restoration and pinch point protection, and improving habitat connectivity are urgent priorities to ensure regional ecological security. This study offers a scientific foundation for the harmonization of ecological protection and economic development and the policy development and execution of relevant departments.