The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

We determined the dynamic tensile strength of ice and ice silicate mixtures at strain rates of ∼10⁴ s⁻¹. At these strain rates, ice has a tensile strength of ∼17 MPa, and ice‐silicate mixtures with 5 and 30 wt % sand content have strengths of ∼20 and 22 MPa, respectively. These values lie significantly above tensile strengths of ∼1.6 MPa for ice and of ∼5−6 MPa for frozen silt, measured at strain rates of ∼10⁻² to 10° s⁻¹, but markedly below values found for a variety of rocks at comparable strain rates. Results of the present experiments are used to derive parameters for continuum fracturing models in icy media, which are used to determine relations between tensile strength and strain rate, and to predict stress and damage histories as well as size frequency distributions for ice and ice‐silicate fragments. It is found that tensile strength σ_M is related to strain rate by σ_M ∝ ε^[0.25–0.3], similar to results obtained for other geological materials. The increase of small fragments relative to larger fragments with increasing strain rate, as predicted by the continuum model, is a result which parallels findings in laboratory impact experiments.

Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade−1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year−1, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days year−1.