Water resource carrying capacity is a key measure of sustainability, commonly employed to evaluate how well water resources can sustain economic and social growth. With China’s rapid economic growth and modernization, water resources in certain regions are now being used at or beyond their sustainable threshold. This study evaluates the present state of water resource carrying capacity in Taizhou City, located in southeastern China. Using relevant data from 2012 to 2022 on society, economy, water resources, and ecology, the weights of the evaluation indicators were determined using both the entropy weight method and principal component analysis. Subsequently, a comprehensive evaluation model for water resource carrying capacity was developed by applying the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method. The comprehensive proximity index for water resource carrying capacity in Taizhou City averaged 0.4864 between 2012 and 2022, indicating a moderate level overall but exhibiting a declining trend, suggesting an approaching threshold of utilization limits. The range was between 0.3461 and 0.7143. In 2017, the comprehensive proximity index was 0.3461 (low water resource carrying capacity level, with water resources already suffering damage and various subsystems developing uncoordinatedly). However, the comprehensive proximity index for water resource carrying capacity improved significantly from 2018 to 2022. A combination of rising industrial water demand and a decrease in both the absolute volume and proportional allocation of water for ecological purposes drove the overall decline in the progress rate in 2017. Taizhou City has formulated strict water resource management policies and measures, resulting in a decrease in indicators such as industrial water consumption, residential water consumption, and industrial wastewater discharge, as well as an increase in indicators such as ecological water consumption and ecological water utilization rate. As a result, the comprehensive water resource carrying capacity saw a notable rise during 2018–2019. The study results provide a reference for the rational use of water resources in Taizhou City and are of certain significance for promoting the coordinated economic and social development of Taizhou City.

Water resources’ carrying capacity (WRCC) is crucial for sustainable development, linking natural resources with social and economic systems. Although Anji County in China has relatively abundant water, uneven distribution, strong seasonality, and rising demand from industrialization and population growth have kept the system close to overload. Using a comprehensive evaluation and optimization framework, this study assessed WRCC from 2015 to 2023. Results show the county has long operated near its threshold, with water shortages projected to reach 23% by 2025, though pressures may ease by 2030. Key constraints include high industrial water use, limited reuse of treated wastewater, and low per capita availability. Model simulations suggest that optimized allocation of surface water, groundwater, and reclaimed water could improve carrying capacity by up to 30%. These findings highlight the need for industrial upgrading, water-saving measures, and expanded wastewater reuse, providing practical guidance for resource management in Anji County and a useful reference for other regions facing similar challenges.

Drought is one of the most widespread natural disasters globally, and its spatiotemporal distribution is profoundly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As a typical humid coastal basin, the Jiaojiang River Basin in southeastern China frequently experiences hydrological extremes such as dry spells during flood seasons. This study focuses on the Jiaojiang River Basin, aiming to investigate the response mechanisms of drought evolution to ENSO in coastal regions. This study employs 10-day scale data from 1991 to 2020 to investigate the drought mechanisms driven by ENSO through a comprehensive framework that combines standardized indices with climate–drought correlation analysis. The results indicate that the Comprehensive Drought Index (CDI), integrating the advantages of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), effectively reflects the basin’s combined meteorological and hydrological wet-dry characteristics. A strong response relationship exists between drought indices in the Jiaojiang River Basin and ENSO events. Drought characteristics in the basin vary significantly during different ENSO phases. The findings can provide theoretical support for the construction of resilient regional water resource systems, and the research framework holds reference value for sustainable development practices in similar coastal regions globally.