Background/Objectives: Measles is a highly contagious viral disease that continues to have a profound effect on morbidity in Romania. Identifying temporal and spatial trends in how the disease spreads among the country’s counties and regions, both in the same disease generation as well as one generation apart (2-week case lag), aided by forecasting tools, could provide valuable insights into tailoring public health interventions. Methods: A big data analysis has been performed on notified measles cases from January 2020 to December 2024 using Python v3.13 grouping cases based on location (using the Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics) and time of the onset of the disease. Results: Feedback loops among both counties and macroregions have been identified (for example Centru-Brașov and București-Ilfov with a correlation factor of 0.77) while monthly forecasting for 2025 and 2026, explored using both the SARIMA and the Holt-Winters models (MAE 1616.74 and 1281.99, respectively), shows the measles might continue to be a burden, with the Holt–Winters models exhibiting slightly more reliable monthly forecast data nationwide, helping to define a solid basis for future predictions and decisions. Conclusions: The spatial feedback loops, both interregional or within the same region, coupled with the trend of lowering vaccination rates, contribute to the persistent emergence of new measles cases which might continue throughout 2025 and 2026 based on the forecasting, distinct from previous outbreaks which followed a specific cadence.
Background and objectives: During an outbreak, measles cases tend to aggregate into increasingly bigger clusters that show specific characteristics, different from the non-cluster cases. As the measles threat continues throughout Europe in 2025 with a high notification rate in Romania as well, exploring how clustering affects the disease propagation can provide additional insights into how to improve measles surveillance and control. Methods: National measles cases from 2020 to 2024 have been split into cluster (at least three related cases) and non-cluster-related cases and analyzed comparatively based on vaccination status, disease-related data (hospitalization) and patient-related data (age, location). Large outbreaks with at least 150 cases, allowing for more comprehensive R0 analysis, have been described and the basic reproduction numbers computed for each of them. Results: There are statistically significant differences in vaccination status, age, and hospital stay between outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Large outbreaks (≥150 cases) show a high degree of variability, with R0 values varying from as low to 1 to as high as 3.92, indicating limited measles transmission control. Conclusions: The findings in this research highlight the critical impact of clustering on measles transmission dynamics during outbreaks. Significant differences in vaccination status, age, and hospitalization rates between cluster and non-cluster cases underscore the importance of targeted surveillance and intervention strategies while the wide range of R0 values observed in large outbreaks points to inconsistent control measures and emphasizes the need for strengthened vaccination campaigns and improved outbreak response protocols to better contain measles spread.
Background/Objectives: Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a major and preventable threat to patient safety, yet reported figures in Central and Eastern Europe are widely affected by under-reporting, which can distort both the apparent infection profile and the perceived burden of disease. Patient-level regional surveillance data were analysed to characterise the reported HAI profile, the determinants of in-hospital mortality, and between-hospital surveillance quality in post-pandemic Southeast Romania. Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of 2878 HAI cases reported across a five-county, multicentre network of 32 hospitals during 2024. Infections were grouped as Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) versus non-CDI. Logistic regression was applied for in-hospital mortality, Cox and competing-risks models for time to death, negative binomial regression for length of stay, and a Spiegelhalter funnel plot for between-hospital variation. Results:Clostridioides difficile infection accounted for 56.3% of reported cases, a markedly higher proportion than that described in European point-prevalence surveys, although differences in design and denominator preclude direct comparison. CDIs and non-CDIs formed distinct clinical phenotypes. In-hospital mortality was lower in CDI than in non-CDIs (14.9% versus 26.1%) and was independently associated with intensive care admission, age, and immunosuppression, while CDI remained associated with lower mortality. The reported CDI proportion ranged from approximately 1% to 93% between hospitals, with most institutions lying outside the funnel control limits. Conclusions: The predominance of CDI among reported HAIs is best interpreted as a signal of selective ascertainment rather than as direct evidence of a genuinely higher CDI burden. Because the dataset lacked admission or patient-day denominators, the CDI-to-total ratio should be regarded as a simple screening indicator of potential surveillance imbalance, useful for identifying hospitals where non-CDIs may be under-detected.
Background and Objectives: Measles is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable disease with significant morbidity in the European region, including Romania, especially in the post-COVID-19 era with low vaccination rates which no longer provide herd immunity. The current study aims to show how vaccination reduces the disease burden. Methods: A study using 29,148 cases with measles-compatible features in Romania from the 2020–2024 period was performed, analyzing symptoms, complications, and hospitalization rates comparatively between vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. Results: Our findings show substantial hospitalization rates reduction among vaccinated cases with an over 12% decrease—depending on the number of MMR doses—as well as reduced severity of clinical features, but no significant effect on disease duration. Conclusions: MMR vaccination provides protection beyond primary disease prevention, as it reduces the disease burden among measles cases by reducing disease-related hospitalizations and improving clinical outcomes.
Background/Objectives: Following the COVID-19 pandemic, pertussis resurged sharply across Europe, with 209,674 cases reported in the EU/EEA in 2024. This study characterises the epidemiology of the 2024 pertussis resurgence across five counties of southeastern Romania, with emphasis on vaccination status, clinical severity, and regional surveillance performance. Methods: A retrospective, population-based analysis was conducted on 452 cases notified between February 2024 and January 2025, extracted from the national surveillance database. A pre-specified reclassification of PCR-positive cases yielded 326 confirmed cases. Categorical, non-parametric, correlation, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: The epidemic peaked in September 2024, with 56.0% of cases occurring between August and October. Children under five years accounted for 63.2% of confirmed cases, and 72.1% were not vaccinated according to age-appropriate schedule, predominantly due to parental refusal (43.0%) and non-attendance (36.6%). Pneumonia affected 36.8% of confirmed cases, ranging from 81.0% in infants under two months to 0% in adolescents. Age-appropriate vaccination was independently protective against pneumonia (adjusted OR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.96, p = 0.035; population attributable risk 37.3%). Significant inter-county heterogeneity was identified in PCR implementation (72 to 100%) and reporting delays. Conclusions: Vaccination gaps were the principal modifiable driver of the resurgence, supporting targeted coverage improvement and the introduction of a national maternal Tdap programme.