Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

The Tarim River is the longest inland river at an arid area in China. Deterioration in its ecohydrological system has received much attention world widely. This study presents quantitative assessment of hydrological alterations in the hydrological regime of the Tarim River caused by reservoir irrigation and channel irrigation over a period of over a half century. The improved indicators of hydrologic alteration and range of variability approach were applied to the daily flow rates at the two representative hydrological stations. Our study shows that the annual extreme water conditions (1-, 3-, 7-day annual minimum and extreme low timing) have been altered, compared with the pre-impact period. The average flow rate in July, the 30-day annual maximum flow rates, the date for the maximum rate, the rise rate, and the fall rate show a significant decreasing trend. The improved overall degree of hydrological alteration for the two stations are approximately 68.7% and 61.8%, suggesting a high degree of alteration. This study greatly improved our understanding of impacts of irrigations on the ecohydrological characteristics in the Tarim River.