Subalpine meadow soil is widespread in the steep valleys of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Owing to its unique structure and climatic conditions, rainfall can trigger extensive ecohydrological disaster, characterized by soil disintegration and shallow landsliding. This phenomenon leads to significant soil erosion and degradation of meadow ecosystems, highlighting the ecological vulnerability of the region. Field investigations have identified porewater pressure from infiltrated rainwater and gravitational pressure on saturated meadow soil as the primary drivers of the landsliding. Building on this understanding, efforts were made to assess the risk of subalpine meadow soil erosion induced by extreme rainfall near Xinduqiao County using the TRIGRS model and the coupled TRIGRS-TOPMODEL (TOP-TRIGRS). Validation of the simulated results against observed erosion events revealed that TOP-TRIGRS tends to predict unstable areas more accurately, particularly in the lower to mid-sections of slopes with gentler gradients, in line with theoretical models of shallow landslide. Specifically, while TRIGRS identified 50.31% of actual shallow landslides, TOP-TRIGRS reached 80.35%. Moreover, the AUC values for TRIGRS and TOP-TRIGRS were 0.787 and 0.896, respectively, indicating the superior predictive performance of TOP-TRIGRS. Accurate prediction of shallow landslides in subalpine meadow soil is vital for informing ecological management regulations and advancing soil and water conservation efforts in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.