The intricate interplay between water resources, land resources, energy systems, and carbon emissions has emerged as a prominent discourse in academic research. Nonetheless, there remains a dearth of comprehensive research dedicated to fostering environmentally friendly and low-carbon development through systematic integration and coordination efforts. This study aimed to fill this gap by integrating the coupling mechanism of the Water-Land-Energy-Carbon (WLEC) system, thereby constructing an evaluation index framework that assesses coordinated developments in Northwest China’s WLEC system. It scrutinizes the security levels within the Water-Land-Energy (WLE) subsystem while conducting quantitative analyses on the degrees of coupling coordination within the WLEC systems, alongside their associated hindering factors. The preliminary findings were as follows: Firstly, the safety development within the WLE system demonstrates a positive trend across Northwest China, with notable advancements primarily observed in the Qinghai and Gansu provinces. In 2021, all five Northwestern provinces exhibited moderate levels of safe development, except for the Qinghai province, which transitioned from moderate to robust. Secondly, the coupling coordination degree of the WLEC system across the five provinces has consistently illustrated an upward trajectory over the years. However, as of 2021, the system remains in a state characterized by marginal disorder. Notably, the Qinghai and Gansu provinces have shown particularly encouraging upward trends, with the Shaanxi province also making notable progress. Conversely, Xinjiang has declined since 2017 due to negative interactions between the subsystems of water, soil, energy, and carbon emissions. Thirdly, spatial variations exist in the distribution patterns between the provinces regarding the influence of obstructing factors on indicators related to coupled coordinated development, such as per capita arable land area, per capita energy consumption, per capita carbon emissions, per capita construction land area, and the proportion of groundwater water in the total amount of water supply, which demonstrated an increasing trend. These findings carry significant practical implications for actively and steadily promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in Northwest China.

Livestock production is a major source of agricultural methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), making the synergistic mitigation of these two gases essential for meeting climate targets. Based on the EDGAR emission database from 2000 to 2024, this study employs international comparisons, spatial analysis, and STIRPAT-based scenario projections to characterize emissions from China’s animal husbandry and explore pathways for synergistic mitigation. The results reveal that China’s livestock CH₄ emissions exhibited a trend of early-stage fluctuation followed by a late-stage rebound, while N₂O emissions fluctuated sharply. The two gases are strongly synergistic yet driven by distinct mechanisms. China accounts for the largest share of global emissions and exhibits a distinctive emission structure—with comparable contributions from enteric fermentation and rice paddies—setting it apart from both pasture-based and intensive developed countries. High-emission areas are becoming increasingly concentrated in northern production regions. Under the baseline scenario, CH₄ and N₂O emissions are projected to peak in 2032 and 2030, respectively; under an ultra-low-carbon scenario, both gases peak around 2029, at substantially lower levels. Achieving synergistic mitigation calls for a regionally differentiated framework that combines top-down governance with bottom-up participation from farmers, integrating enteric fermentation control with optimized manure management to support a low-carbon transition.

Methane (CH₄), the second-largest global greenhouse gas and a key driver of tropospheric ozone formation, critically influences climate change and air quality. As the world’s largest CH₄ emitter, China must develop targeted mitigation strategies to support its carbon peak and neutrality goals while reducing ozone pollution. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of provincial CH₄ emissions in China from 2000 to 2023 using spatial autocorrelation, hotspot detection, trend analysis, and K-means clustering. Our results revealed a triphasic emission trajectory—rapid growth followed by stabilization and a recent resurgence—with all provinces except Tibet showing increasing trends. The energy sector emerged as the primary contributor, particularly in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi, whereas agricultural emissions dominated in pastoral regions, such as Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, and rice-growing areas, such as Hunan and Hubei. Coastal provinces, including Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, exhibited waste disposal as their predominant CH₄ source. Based on these patterns, we classified the emission zones into four distinct typologies: coal-dominant, waste-dominant, oil-agriculture composite, and multifactorial systems, proposing tailored mitigation frameworks that integrate CH₄ and ozone co-reduction. This study provides a spatially resolved foundation for synergistic climate and air quality governance in China.