Climate warming in regions of ice‐rich permafrost can result in widespread thermokarst development, which reconfigures the landscape and damages infrastructure. We present multisite time series observations which couple ground temperature measurements with thermokarst development in a region of very cold permafrost. In the Canadian High Arctic between 2003 and 2016, a series of anomalously warm summers caused mean thawing indices to be 150–240% above the 1979–2000 normal resulting in up to 90 cm of subsidence over the 12‐year observation period. Our data illustrate that despite low mean annual ground temperatures, very cold permafrost (<−10 °C) with massive ground ice close to the surface is highly vulnerable to rapid permafrost degradation and thermokarst development. We suggest that this is due to little thermal buffering from soil organic layers and near‐surface vegetation, and the presence of near‐surface ground ice. Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under representative concentration pathway version 4.5.

Ice‐cored permafrost landscapes are highly sensitive to disturbance and have the potential to undergo dramatic geomorphic transformations in response to climate change. The acceleration of thermokarst activity in the lower Mackenzie and Peel River watersheds of northwestern Canada has led to the development of large permafrost thaw slumps and caused major impacts to fluvial systems. Individual “mega slumps” have thawed up to 10⁶ m³of ice‐rich permafrost. The widespread development of these large thaw slumps (up to 40 ha area with headwalls of up to 25 m height) and associated debris flows drive distinct patterns of stream sediment and solute flux that are evident across a range of watershed scales. Suspended sediment and solute concentrations in impacted streams were several orders of magnitude greater than in unaffected streams. In summer, slump impacted streams displayed diurnal fluctuations in water levels and solute and sediment flux driven entirely by ground‐ice thaw. Turbidity in these streams varied diurnally by up to an order of magnitude and followed the patterns of net radiation and ground‐ice ablation in mega slumps. These diurnal patterns were discernible at the 10³ km² catchment scale, and regional disturbance inventories indicate that hundreds of watersheds are already influenced by slumping. The broad scale impacts of accelerated slumping are indicated by a significant increase in solute concentrations in the Peel River (70,000 km²). These observations illustrate the nature and magnitude of hydrogeomorphic changes that can be expected as glaciogenic landscapes underlain by massive ice adjust to a rapidly changing climate.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems, sensors, and photogrammetric processing techniques have enabled timely and highly detailed three-dimensional surface reconstructions at a scale that bridges the gap between conventional remote-sensing and field-scale observations. In this work 29 rotary and fixed-wing UAV surveys were conducted during multiple field campaigns, totaling 47 flights and over 14.3 km², to document permafrost thaw subsidence impacts on or close to road infrastructure in the Northwest Territories, Canada. This paper provides four case studies: (1) terrain models and orthomosaic time series revealed the morphology and daily to annual dynamics of thaw-driven mass wasting phenomenon (retrogressive thaw slumps; RTS). Scar zone cut volume estimates ranged between 3.2 × 10³ and 5.9 × 10⁶ m³. The annual net erosion of RTS surveyed ranged between 0.35 × 10³ and 0.39 × 10⁶ m³. The largest RTS produced a long debris tongue with an estimated volume of 1.9 × 10⁶ m³. Downslope transport of scar zone and embankment fill materials was visualized using flow vectors, while thermal imaging revealed areas of exposed ground ice and mobile lobes of saturated, thawed materials. (2) Stratigraphic models were developed for RTS headwalls, delineating ground-ice bodies and stratigraphic unconformities. (3) In poorly drained areas along road embankments, UAV surveys detected seasonal terrain uplift and settlement of up to 0.5 m (>1700 m² in extent) as a result of injection ice development. (4) Time series of terrain models highlighted the thaw-driven evolution of a borrow pit (6.4 × 10⁵ m³ cut volume) constructed in permafrost terrain, whereby fluvial and thaw-driven sediment transfer (1.1 and 3.9 × 10³ m³ a⁻¹ respectively) was observed and annual slope profile reconfiguration was monitored to gain management insights concerning site stabilization. Elevation model vertical accuracies were also assessed as part of the case studies and ranged between 0.02 and 0.13 m Root Mean Square Error. Photogrammetric models processed with Post-processed Kinematic image solutions achieved similar accuracies without ground control points over much larger and complex areas than previously reported. The high resolution of UAV surveys, and the capacity to derive quantitative time series provides novel insights into permafrost processes that are otherwise challenging to study. The timely emergence of these tools bridges field-based research and applied studies with broad-scale remote-sensing approaches during a period when climate change is transforming permafrost environments.

The intensification of thaw-driven mass wasting is transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Within the context of recent, rapidly evolving climate controls on the geomorphology of permafrost terrain, we (A) quantify three-dimensional retrogressive thaw slump enlargement and describe the processes and thresholds coupling slopes to downstream systems, (B) investigate catchment-scale patterns of slope thermokarst impacts and the geomorphic implications, and (C) map the propagation of effects through hydrological networks draining permafrost terrain of northwestern Canada. Power-law relationships between retrogressive thaw slump area and volume (R²=0.90), as well as the thickness of permafrost thawed (R²=0.63), combined with the multi-decadal (1986–2018) increase in the areal extent of thaw slump disturbance, show a 2 order of magnitude increase in catchment-scale geomorphic activity and the coupling of slope and hydrological systems. Predominant effects are to first- and second-order streams where sediment delivery, often indicated by formation of recent debris tongue deposits, commonly exceeds the transport capacity of headwater streams by orders of magnitude, signaling centennial- to millennial-scale perturbation of downstream systems. Assessment of hydrological networks indicates that thaw-driven mass wasting directly affects over 5538 km of stream segments, 889 km of coastline, and 1379 lakes in the 994 860 km² study area. Downstream propagation of slope thermokarst indicates a potential increase in the number of affected lakes by at least a factor of 4 (n>5692) and impacted stream length by a factor of 8 (>44 343 km), and it defines several major impact zones on lakes, deltas, and coastal areas. Prince of Wales Strait is the receiving marine environment for greatly increased sediment and geochemical fluxes from numerous slump-impacted hydrological networks draining Banks Island and Victoria Island. The Peel and Mackenzie rivers are globally significant conveyors of the slope thermokarst cascade, delivering effects to North America's largest Arctic delta and the Beaufort Sea. Climate-driven erosion of ice-rich slopes in permafrost-preserved glaciated terrain has triggered a time-transient cascade of downstream effects that signal the rejuvenation of post-glacial landscape evolution. Glacial legacy, ground-ice conditions, and continental drainage patterns dictate that terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine environments of western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia.

Ice-wedge networks underlie polygonal terrain and comprise the most widespread form of massive ground ice in continuous permafrost. Here, we show that climate-driven thaw of hilltop ice-wedge networks is rapidly transforming uplands across Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Change detection using high-resolution WorldView images and historical air photos, coupled with 32-year Landsat reflectance trends, indicate broad-scale increases in ponding from ice-wedge thaw on hilltops, which has significantly affected at least 1500 km² of Banks Island and over 3.5% of the total upland area. Trajectories of change associated with this upland ice-wedge thermokarst include increased micro-relief, development of high-centred polygons, and, in areas of poor drainage, ponding and potential initiation of thaw lakes. Millennia of cooling climate have favoured ice-wedge growth, and an absence of ecosystem disturbance combined with surface denudation by solifluction has produced high Arctic uplands and slopes underlain by ice-wedge networks truncated at the permafrost table. The thin veneer of thermally-conductive mineral soils strongly links Arctic upland active-layer responses to summer warming. For these reasons, widespread and intense ice-wedge thermokarst on Arctic hilltops and slopes contrast more muted responses to warming reported in low and subarctic environments. Increasing field evidence of thermokarst highlights the inherent climate sensitivity of the Arctic permafrost terrain and the need for integrated approaches to monitor change and investigate the cascade of environmental consequences.