In recent years, with the continuous increase in coal mining depth and intensity, hydrogeological conditions in coal mines have become increasingly complex, and the risk of floor water inrush has risen significantly. To address the limitations of the global weighting pattern in traditional floor water inrush risk evaluation systems, this study, taking a coal mine in Shaanxi Province as a case, develops a local water inrush risk evaluation method based on the Monte Carlo Analytic Hierarchy Process (MAHP) combined with a circular moving window, and compares it with the water inrush coefficient method and the global evaluation method. The results demonstrate that the proposed local evaluation model achieves higher accuracy, provides a more refined delineation of high-risk zones, and shows stronger consistency with actual mining conditions. Further comparison of window radii of 100 m, 500 m, and 900 m indicates that the 500 m radius performs best in terms of spatial morphology, area proportion, and water inrush point identification rate (89.3%). Moreover, its application in Yangcheng Coal Mine further confirms that this method can accurately identify high-risk zones, thereby offering reliable scientific support for the prevention and control of coal seam floor water inrush.