We explore the patterns of Black Sea phytoplankton growth as driven by the thermohaline structure and circulation system and the freshwater nutrient loads. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the phytoplankton blooms is examined using hydrodynamic simulations that resolve mesoscale eddies and online coupled bio-geochemical model. This study suggests that the bloom seasonality is homogeneous across geographic locations of the Black Sea inner basin, with the strongest bloom occurring in winter (February–March), followed by weaker bloom in spring (April–May), summer deep biomass maximum (DBM) (June–September) and a final bloom in autumn (October–November). The winter phytoplankton bloom relies on vertical mixing of nitrate from the intermediate layers, where nitrate is abundant. The winter bloom is highly dependent on the strength of the cold intermediate layers (CIL), while spring/summer blooms take advantage of the CIL weakness. The maximum phytoplankton transport across the North Western Shelf (NWS) break occurs in September, prior to the basin interior autumn bloom. Bloom initiation in early autumn is associated with the spreading of NWS waters, which in turn is caused by an increase in mesoscale eddy activity in late summer months. In summary, the intrusion of low salinity and nitrate-rich water into the basin interior triggers erosion of the thermocline, resulting in vertical nitrate uplifting. The seasonal phytoplankton succession is strongly influenced by the recent CIL disintegration and amplification of the Black Sea circulation, which may alter the natural Black Sea nitrate dynamics, with subsequent effects on phytoplankton and in turn on all marine life.

We apply a tracer model linked with a 3D circulation model to simulate transport and fate of water-soluble persistent substances in the Black Sea that do not bioaccumulate to a considerable extent. The model uses specified degradation time and identical concentrations in the rivers to build a correlation between average concentration in the basin and half-life (DT50). The average concentration in certain sub-regions of the Black Sea can be estimated using an exponential dependence of DT50, if DT50 and concentration in rivers are known. Averaging is performed on the simulations from 2000 to 2019 with real atmospheric forcing and river runoff. A well-defined seasonal cycle is evident for the average shelf concentration, while the average concentration in the deep region does not show a pronounced seasonal cycle or inter-annual variations. With the help of the existing observational data, we estimate DT50 and concentration in the rivers for carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole and terbuthylazine. Atrazine and simazine are believed to have accumulated in the basin for a long time due to their widespread use in the past and the slow rate of degradation in the marine environment.

Accumulation of plastic litter in the marine environment is a pressing global concern. To study this issue, we use the Blue2 Modelling Framework (Blue2MF), an integrated modelling tool developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. Our study uses the Lagrangian model LTRANS-Zlev (LTRANS) in the Blue2MF to simulate the trajectories, distribution, and accumulation of macroplastics in five European marine basins: the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic Northwest European Shelf, and Atlantic Southwest European Shelf. By incorporating model-estimated macroplastic inputs from land and estimations of maritime (fishing) sources, we simulate distribution patterns of marine macroplastics between 2016 and 2018. Our study addresses the challenges involved in modelling the spatial distribution and abundances of macroplastics with the LTRANS model and the factors that may condition the estimation of the model accuracy when model results are compared/validated with marine litter observations available. We compare our model results with available observations, achieving a good agreement between predicted and observed macroplastic distributions and abundances and estimating the model accuracy for both beached and floating macroplastics. Our study provides a basis for future forecast runs to evaluate the impact of policy/management options on marine macroplastic pollution in European Seas.

The ecological status of the two nautical mile (2 nm) coastal waters of Bulgaria (BG) and Romania (RO) is evaluated in terms of eutrophication, focusing on various environmental and chemical indicators related to nutrient enrichment and its effects. Applying the Blue2 Modelling Framework (Blue2MF) Black Sea model, we simulate diverse combinations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) reduction. By integrating atmospheric and marine conditions, hydrology and environmental dynamics, the model provides a comprehensive framework for analysing the impact of external pressures on the marine environment and can be used to set regional sustainability goals. Each scenario is assessed with respect to environmental impact, such as enhanced water quality and potential alterations in phytoplankton communities. Furthermore, we establish integrated nutrient criteria for eutrophication control, concentrating on the management of both N and P inputs while maintaining the current ratio between them. The model results indicate that a 20% reduction in both N and P from European Union (EU) rivers would result in about a 24% decrease in N within the BG and RO 2 nm coastal waters, whilst sustaining the N:P ratio across various spatial scales—from river inputs to coastal and offshore zones. This approach is valuable for assessing the potential impacts of different nutrient reduction strategies, aiding the effective management of marine ecosystems to address eutrophication challenges.