Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) represents the interaction between human societies and the natural environment. Studies of LUCC simulation allow for the analysis of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) patterns in a given region. Moreover, these studies enable the simulation of complex future LUCC scenarios by integrating multiple factors. Such studies can provide effective means for optimizing and making decisions about the future patterns of a region. This review conducted a literature search on geographic models and simulations in the Web of Science database. From the literature, we summarized the basic steps of spatiotemporal dynamic simulation of LUCC. The focus was on the current major models, analyzing their characteristics and limitations, and discussing their expanded applications in land use. This review reveals that current research still faces challenges such as data uncertainty, necessitating the advancement of more diverse data and new technologies. Future research can enhance the precision and applicability of studies by improving models and methods, integrating big data and multi-scale data, and employing multi-model coupling and various algorithmic experiments for comparison. This would support the advancement of land use spatiotemporal dynamic simulation research to higher levels.

Rice is a globally important food crop, and it is crucial to accurately and conveniently obtain information on rice fields, understand their spatial patterns, and grasp their dynamic changes to address food security challenges. In this study, Chongqing’s Yongchuan District was selected as the research area. By utilizing UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) to collect multi-spectral remote sensing data during three seasons, the phenological characteristics of rice fields were analyzed using the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Based on Sentinel data with a resolution of 10 m, the NDVI difference method was used to extract rice fields between 2019 and 2023. Furthermore, the reasons for changes in rice fields over the five years were also analyzed. First, a simulation model of the rice harvesting period was constructed using data from 32 sampling points through multiple regression analysis. Based on the model, the study area was classified into six categories, and the necessary data for each region were identified. Next, the NDVI values for the pre-harvest and post-harvest periods of rice fields, as well as the differences between them, were calculated for various regions. Additionally, every year, 35 samples of rice fields were chosen from high-resolution images provided by Google. The thresholds for extracting rice fields were determined by statistically analyzing the difference in NDVI values within the sample area. By utilizing these thresholds, rice fields corresponding to six harvesting regions were extracted separately. The rice fields extracted from different regions were merged to obtain the rice fields for the study area from 2019 to 2023, and the accuracy of the extraction results was verified. Then, based on five years of rice fields in the study area, we analyzed them from both temporal and spatial perspectives. In the temporal analysis, a transition matrix of rice field changes and the calculation of the rice fields’ dynamic degree were utilized to examine the temporal changes. The spatial changes were analyzed by incorporating DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data. Finally, a logistic regression model was employed to investigate the causes of both temporal and spatial changes in the rice fields. The study results indicated the following: (1) The simulation model of the rice harvesting period can quickly and accurately determine the best period of remote sensing images needed to extract rice fields. (2) The confusion matrix shows the effectiveness of the NDVI difference method in extracting rice fields. (3) The total area of rice fields in the study area did not change much each year, but there were still significant spatial adjustments. Over the five years, the spatial distribution of gained rice fields was relatively uniform, while the lost rice fields showed obvious regional differences. In combination with the analysis of altitude, it tended to grow in lower areas. (4) The logistic regression analysis revealed that gained rice fields tended to be found in regions with convenient irrigation, flat terrain, lower altitude, and proximity to residential areas. Conversely, lost rice fields were typically located in areas with inconvenient irrigation, long distance from residential areas, low population, and negative topography.

Understanding the driving forces of land use and land cover change (LUCC) is crucial for revealing the coupled dynamics of human–land systems and supporting optimized spatial planning and resource allocation. To overcome the limitations of conventional Geodetector applications in mountainous regions with complex terrain, this study proposes a terrain–population dual-factor adaptive grid designed for use with the Geodetector model. This adaptive grid refines cells in steep and densely populated areas while merging cells in flatter and sparsely populated regions, thus capturing both natural and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Coupled with the Geodetector model, this framework improves the accuracy and computational efficiency of identifying LUCC drivers. Using the Chongqing Metropolitan Area (CMA) as a case study, LUCC dynamics and their driving mechanisms were systematically examined based on five annual land cover datasets (from 2000 to 2020 at five-year intervals.). The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland, forest land, and built-up land were the dominant land use types. During this period, cropland and forest land declined, whereas built-up land expanded continuously, with the most pronounced changes occurring between 2000 and 2010. (2) The dominant drivers of LUCC shifted over time: socioeconomic factors such as population density and GDP were primary drivers from 2000 to 2010, while both natural and socioeconomic factors exerted strong influence between 2010 and 2020. (3) The proposed terrain–population dual-factor irregular grid performed better than traditional regular grids in detecting socioeconomic drivers while retaining comparable explanatory power for natural factors. Compared with traditional regular grids, with an average q-value improvement of 18.7% and a 55.52% reduction in sampling points, resulting in substantially improved computational efficiency. Overall, the proposed method enhances the applicability of Geodetector in complex mountainous cities and provides practical implications for urban land use regulation and refined spatial management.

Rice, as one of the world’s three major staple crops, provides a food source for nearly half of the global population. Timely and accurate acquisition of rice cultivation information is crucial for optimizing spatial distribution, guiding production practices, and safeguarding food security. Taking Bishan District of Chongqing as the study area, NDVI values were derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to construct standard NDVI time-series curves for typical land-cover types, including paddy fields, dryland, water bodies, construction land, and forest and grassland. These curves were then used in the NDVI time-series characteristics method to identify paddy fields. First, the Euclidean distance between the standard NDVI time series of paddy fields and those of other land-cover types was calculated. The sum of these element-wise differences was used to determine the upper threshold for paddy field extraction. Second, the mean absolute deviation between elements of the rice sample dataset and the standard NDVI time series was calculated for each time step. The sum of these average deviations was used as the lower threshold to extract the initial paddy field data. On this basis, an extreme-value constraint was introduced to reduce the interference of mixed pixels from forest and grassland and construction land, effectively eliminating anomalous pixels and improving the accuracy of paddy field identification. Finally, the results were validated and compared with those from other extraction methods. The results indicate that: (1) Paddy fields exhibit distinct NDVI time-series characteristics throughout the entire growing season, which can serve as a reference standard. By calculating the Euclidean distance between the NDVI curves of other land-cover types and those of paddy fields, similarity can be quantified, enabling rice identification. (2) The extraction method based on NDVI time-series characteristics successfully identified paddy fields through the appropriate setting of thresholds. The overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient remained high, while the F1-score consistently exceeded 0.8, indicating a good balance between precision and recall. Furthermore, the bootstrap uncertainty analysis revealed narrow 95% confidence intervals across all metrics, confirming the robustness and statistical reliability of the results. Overall, the proposed method demonstrated excellent performance in paddy field classification and significantly outperformed traditional machine learning methods implemented on the GEE platform. (3) Mixed pixels considerably affected the accuracy of rice classification; however, the introduction of the extreme-value constraint effectively mitigated this influence and further improved classification results.