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Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Background: Underground miners exposed to high levels of radon have an excess risk of lung cancer. Residential exposure to radon is at much lower levels, and the risk of lung cancer with residential exposure is less clear. We conducted a systematic analysis of pooled data from all North American residential radon studies. Methods: The pooling project included original data from 7 North American case–control studies, all of which used long-term α-track detectors to assess residential radon concentrations. A total of 3662 cases and 4966 controls were retained for the analysis. We used conditional likelihood regression to estimate the excess risk of lung cancer. Results: Odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer increased with residential radon concentration. The estimated OR after exposure to radon at a concentration of 100 Bq/m³ in the exposure time window 5 to 30 years before the index date was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 1.00–1.28). This estimate is compatible with the estimate of 1.12 (1.02–1.25) predicted by downward extrapolation of the miner data. There was no evidence of heterogeneity of radon effects across studies. There was no apparent heterogeneity in the association by sex, educational level, type of respondent (proxy or self), or cigarette smoking, although there was some evidence of a decreasing radon-associated lung cancer risk with age. Analyses restricted to subsets of the data with presumed more accurate radon dosimetry resulted in increased estimates of risk. Conclusions: These results provide direct evidence of an association between residential radon and lung cancer risk, a finding predicted using miner data and consistent with results from animal and in vitro studies.

Purpose: An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer is important for improving prevention, early detection, and therapeutic approaches. We evaluated 14 hormonal, reproductive, and lifestyle factors by histologic subtype in the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium (OC3). Patients and Methods: Among 1.3 million women from 21 studies, 5,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified (3,378 serous, 606 endometrioid, 331 mucinous, 269 clear cell, 1,000 other). By using competing-risks Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by study and birth year and adjusted for age, parity, and oral contraceptive use, we assessed associations for all invasive cancers by histology. Heterogeneity was evaluated by likelihood ratio test. Results: Most risk factors exhibited significant heterogeneity by histology. Higher parity was most strongly associated with endometrioid (relative risk [RR] per birth, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.83) and clear cell (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.76) carcinomas (P value for heterogeneity [P-het] < .001). Similarly, age at menopause, endometriosis, and tubal ligation were only associated with endometrioid and clear cell tumors (P-het ≤ .01). Family history of breast cancer (P-het = .008) had modest heterogeneity. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of mucinous (RR per 20 pack-years, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46) but a decreased risk of clear cell (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) tumors (P-het = .004). Unsupervised clustering by risk factors separated endometrioid, clear cell, and low-grade serous carcinomas from high-grade serous and mucinous carcinomas. Conclusion: The heterogeneous associations of risk factors with ovarian cancer subtypes emphasize the importance of conducting etiologic studies by ovarian cancer subtypes. Most established risk factors were more strongly associated with nonserous carcinomas, which demonstrate challenges for risk prediction of serous cancers, the most fatal subtype.

Cohort studies have consistently shown underground miners exposed to high levels of radon to be at excess risk of lung cancer, and extrapolations based on those results indicate that residential radon may be responsible for nearly 10–15% of all lung cancer deaths per year in the United States. However, case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer have provided ambiguous evidence of radon lung cancer risks. Regardless, alpha-particle emissions from the short-lived radioactive radon decay products can damage cellular DNA. The possibility that a demonstrated lung carcinogen may be present in large numbers of homes raises a serious public health concern. Thus, a systematic analysis of pooled data from all North American residential radon studies was undertaken to provide a more direct characterization of the public health risk posed by prolonged radon exposure. To evaluate the risk associated with prolonged residential radon exposure, a combined analysis of the primary data from seven large scale case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer risk was conducted. The combined data set included a total of 4081 cases and 5281 controls, representing the largest aggregation of data on residential radon and lung cancer conducted to date. Residential radon concentrations were determined primarily by α-track detectors placed in the living areas of homes of the study subjects in order to obtain an integrated 1-yr average radon concentration in indoor air. Conditional likelihood regression was used to estimate the excess risk of lung cancer due to residential radon exposure, with adjustment for attained age, sex, study, smoking factors, residential mobility, and completeness of radon measurements. Although the main analyses were based on the combined data set as a whole, we also considered subsets of the data considered to have more accurate radon dosimetry. This included a subset of the data involving 3662 cases and 4966 controls with α-track radon measurements within the exposure time window (ETW) 5–30 yr prior to the index date considered previously by Krewski et al. (2005) Krewski, D. , Lubin, J. H. , Zielinski, J. M. , Alavanja, M. , Catalan, V. S. , Field, R. W. , Klotz, J. B. , Letourneau, E. G. , Lynch, C. F. , Lyon, J. L. , Sandler, D. P. , Schoenberg, J. B. , Steck, D. J. , Stolwijk, J. A. , Weinberg, C. and Wilcox, H. B. 2005. Residential radon and risk of lung cancer: A combined analysis of 7 North American case-control studies. Epidemiology, 16: 137–145. [PUBMED] [INFOTRIEVE] [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] . Additional restrictions focused on subjects for which a greater proportion of the ETW was covered by measured rather than imputed radon concentrations, and on subjects who occupied at most two residences. The estimated odds ratio (OR) of lung cancer generally increased with radon concentration. The OR trend was consistent with linearity (p = .10), and the excess OR (EOR) was 0.10 per Bq/m³ with 95% confidence limits (−0.01, 0.26). For the subset of the data considered previously by Krewski et al. (2005) Krewski, D. , Lubin, J. H. , Zielinski, J. M. , Alavanja, M. , Catalan, V. S. , Field, R. W. , Klotz, J. B. , Letourneau, E. G. , Lynch, C. F. , Lyon, J. L. , Sandler, D. P. , Schoenberg, J. B. , Steck, D. J. , Stolwijk, J. A. , Weinberg, C. and Wilcox, H. B. 2005. Residential radon and risk of lung cancer: A combined analysis of 7 North American case-control studies. Epidemiology, 16: 137–145. [PUBMED] [INFOTRIEVE] [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] , the EOR was 0.11 (0.00, 0.28). Further limiting subjects based on our criteria (residential stability and completeness of radon monitoring) expected to improve radon dosimetry led to increased estimates of the EOR. For example, for subjects who had resided in only one or two houses in the 5–30 ETW and who had α-track radon measurements for at least 20 yr of this 25-yr period, the EOR was 0.18 (0.02, 0.43) per 100 Bq/m³. Both estimates are compatible with the EOR of 0.12 (0.02, 0.25) per 100 Bq/m³ predicted by downward extrapolation of the miner data. Collectively, these results provide direct evidence of an association between residential radon and lung cancer risk, a finding predicted by extrapolation of results from occupational studies of radon-exposed underground miners.

The authors examined the relation between 45 common agricultural pesticides and prostate cancer incidence in a prospective cohort study of 55,332 male pesticide applicators from Iowa and North Carolina with no prior history of prostate cancer. Data were collected by means of self-administered questionnaires completed at enrollment (1993–1997). Cancer incidence was determined through population-based cancer registries from enrollment through December 31, 1999. A prostate cancer standardized incidence ratio was computed for the cohort. Odds ratios were computed for individual pesticides and for pesticide use patterns identified by means of factor analysis. A prostate cancer standardized incidence ratio of 1.14 (95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.24) was observed for the Agricultural Health Study cohort. Use of chlorinated pesticides among applicators over 50 years of age and methyl bromide use were significantly associated with prostate cancer risk. Several other pesticides showed a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer among study subjects with a family history of prostate cancer but not among those with no family history. Important family history-pesticide interactions were observed.