Massive open online courses (MOOCs) represent an innovative online learning paradigm that has garnered considerable popularity in recent years, attracting a multitude of learners to MOOC platforms due to their accessible and adaptable instructional structure. However, the elevated dropout rate in current MOOCs limits their advancement. Current dropout prediction models predominantly employ fixed-size convolutional kernels for feature extraction, which insufficiently address temporal dependencies and consequently demonstrate specific limitations. We propose a Lie Group-based feature context-local fusion attention model for predicting dropout in MOOCs. This model initially extracts shallow features using Lie Group machine learning techniques and subsequently integrates multiple parallel dilated convolutional modules to acquire high-level semantic representations. We design an attention mechanism that integrates contextual and local features, effectively capturing the temporal dependencies in the study behaviors of learners. We performed multiple experiments on the XuetangX dataset to evaluate the model’s efficacy. The results show that our method attains a precision score of 0.910, exceeding the previous state-of-the-art approach by 3.3%.