Purpose: This study sought to develop models with good identification for adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) and find strong factors that affect prognosis. Patients and Methods: A total of 5004 qualifying cases were selected, among which 498 cases had adverse outcomes and 4506 cases were discharged after improvement. The study subjects were hospitalized patients diagnosed with HF from a regional cardiovascular hospital and the cardiology department of a medical university hospital in Shanxi Province of China between January 2014 and June 2019. Synthesizing minority oversampling technology combined with edited nearest neighbors (SMOTE+ENN) was used to pre-process unbalanced data. Traditional logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to build risk identification models, and each model was repeated 100 times. Model discrimination and calibration were estimated using F1-score, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and Brier score. The best performing of the five models was used to identify the risk of adverse outcomes and evaluate the influencing factors. Results: The SME-XGBoost was the best performing model with means of F1-score (0.3673, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3633– 0.3712), AUC (0.8010, CI: 0.7974– 0.8046), and Brier score (0.1769, CI: 0.1748– 0.1789). Age, N-terminal pronatriuretic peptide, pulmonary disease, etc. were the most significant factors of adverse outcomes in patients with HF. Conclusion: The combination of SMOTE+ENN and advanced machine learning methods effectively improved the discrimination efficacy of adverse outcomes in HF patients, accurately stratified patients at risk of adverse outcomes, and found the top factors of adverse outcomes. These models and factors emphasize the importance of health status data in determining adverse outcomes in patients with HF.

Background: Health-related quality of life, as evaluated by a patient-reported outcomes measure (PROM), is an important prognostic marker in patients with chronic heart failure. This study aimed to use PROM to establish an effective readmission nomogram for chronic heart failure. Methods: Using a PROM as a measurement tool, we conducted a readmission nomogram for chronic heart failure on a prospective observational study comprising of 454 patients with chronic heart failure hospitalized between May 2017 to January 2020. A Concordance index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and predictive accuracy of the nomogram. A bootstrap resampling method was used for internal validation of results. Results: The median follow-up period in the study was 372 days. After a final COX regression analysis, the gender, income, health care, appetite-sleep, anxiety, depression, paranoia, support, and independence were identified and included in the nomogram. The nomogram showed moderate discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.737 (95% CI 0.673–0.800). The calibration curves for the probability of readmission for patients with chronic heart failure showed high consistency between the probability, as predicted, and the actual probability. Conclusions: This model offers a platform to assess the risk of readmission for different populations with CHF and can assist clinicians with personalized treatment recommendations.

This study tested the hypothesis that CD44 is involved in the development of cardiac fibrosis via angiotensin II (Ang II) AT1 receptor-stimulated TNFα/NFκB/IκB signaling pathways. Study was conducted in C57BL/6 wild type and CD44 knockout mice subjected to Ang II infusion (1,000 ng/kg/min) using osmotic minipumps up to 4 weeks or with gastric gavage administration of the AT1 receptor blocker, telmisartan at a dose of 10 mg/kg/d. Results indicated that Ang II enhances expression of the AT1 receptor, TNFα, NFκB, and CD44 as well as downregulates IκB. Further analyses revealed that Ang II increases macrophage migration, augments myofibroblast proliferation, and induces vascular/interstitial fibrosis. Relative to the Ang II group, treatment with telmisartan significantly reduced expression of the AT1 receptor and TNFα. These changes occurred in coincidence with decreased NFκB, increased IκB, and downregulated CD44 in the intracardiac vessels and intermyocardium. Furthermore, macrophage migration and myofibroblast proliferation were inhibited and fibrosis was attenuated. Knockout of CD44 did not affect Ang II-stimulated AT1 receptor and modulated TNFα/NFκB/IκB signaling, but significantly reduced macrophage/myofibroblast-mediated fibrosis as identified by less extensive collagen-rich area. These results suggest that the AT1 receptor is involved in the development of cardiac fibrosis by stimulating TNFα/NFκB/IκB-triggered CD44 signaling pathways. Knockout of CD44 blocked Ang II-induced cell migration/proliferation and cardiac fibrosis. Therefore, selective inhibition of CD44 may be considered as a potential therapeutic target for attenuating Ang II-induced deleterious cardiovascular effects.

Background: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) can be obtained outside hospitals and are of great significance for evaluation of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to establish a prediction model using PROs for out-of-hospital patients. Methods: CHF-PRO were collected in 941 patients with CHF from a prospective cohort. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality, HF hospitalization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). To establish prognosis models during the two years follow-up, six machine learning methods were used, including logistic regression, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine, naive bayes, and multilayer perceptron. Models were established in four steps, namely, using general information as predictors, using four domains of CHF-PRO, using both of them and adjusting the parameters. The discrimination and calibration were then estimated. Further analyze were performed for the best model. The top prediction variables were further assessed. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to explain black boxes of the models. Moreover, a self-made web-based risk calculator was established to facilitate the clinical application. Results: CHF-PRO showed strong prediction value and improved the performance of the models. Among the approaches, XGBoost of the parameter adjustment model had the highest prediction performance with an area under the curve of 0.754 (95% CI: 0.737 to 0.761) for death, 0.718 (95% CI: 0.717 to 0.721) for HF rehospitalization and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.595 to 0.710) for MACEs. The four domains of CHF-PRO, especially the physical domain, showed the most significant impact on the prediction of outcomes. Conclusion: CHF-PRO showed strong prediction value in the models. The XGBoost models using variables based on CHF-PRO and the patient’s general information provide prognostic assessment for patients with CHF. The self-made web-based risk calculator can be conveniently used to predict the prognosis for patients after discharge. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx; Unique identifier: ChiCTR2100043337. Graphical

Objective: To explore the application of the Cox model based on extreme learning machine in the survival analysis of patients with chronic heart failure.Methods: The medical records of 5,279 inpatients diagnosed with chronic heart failure in two grade 3 and first-class hospitals in Taiyuan from 2014 to 2019 were collected; with death as the outcome and after the feature selection, the Lasso Cox, random survival forest (RSF), and the Cox model based on extreme learning machine (ELM Cox) were constructed for survival analysis and prediction; the prediction performance of the three models was explored based on simulated data with three censoring ratios of 25, 50, and 75%.Results: Simulation results showed that the prediction performance of the three models decreased with increasing censoring proportion, and the ELM Cox model performed best overall; the ELM Cox model constructed with 21 highly influential survival predictors screened from actual chronic heart failure data showed the best performance with C-index and Integrated Brier Score (IBS) of 0.775(0.755, 0.802) and 0.166(0.150, 0.182), respectively.Conclusion: The ELM Cox model showed good discrimination performance in the survival analysis of patients with chronic heart failure; it performs consistently for data with a high proportion of censored survival time; therefore, the model could help physicians identify patients at high risk of poor prognosis and target therapeutic measures to patients as early as possible.

Background: Chronic heart failure (CHF) comorbid with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a serious threat to human health and has become a major clinical burden. This prospective cohort study was performed to design a risk stratification system based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model to accurately predict the 1- to 3-year all-cause mortality of patients with CHF comorbid with AF. Methods: Electronic medical records of hospitalized patients with CHF comorbid with AF from January 2014 to April 2019 were collected. The data set was randomly divided into a training set and test set at a 3:1 ratio. In the training set, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) algorithm and fivefold cross validation were used for LightGBM model training, and the model performance was performed on the test set and compared using the logistic regression method. The survival rate was presented on a Kaplan–Meier curve and compared by a log-rank test, and the hazard ratio was calculated by a Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Of the included 1796 patients, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative mortality rates were 7.74%, 10.63%, and 12.43%, respectively. Compared with the logistic regression model, the LightGBM model showed better predictive performance, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 1-, 2-, and 3-year all-cause mortality was 0.718 (95%CI, 0.710–0.727), 0.744(95%CI, 0.737–0.751), and 0.757 (95%CI, 0.751–0.763), respectively. The net reclassification index was 0.062 (95%CI, 0.044–0.079), 0.154 (95%CI, 0.138–0.172), and 0.148 (95%CI, 0.133–0.164), respectively. The differences between the two models were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Patients in the high-risk group had a significantly higher hazard of death than those in the low-risk group (hazard ratios: 12.68, 13.13, 14.82, P < 0.05). Conclusion: Risk stratification based on the LightGBM model showed better discriminative ability than traditional model in predicting 1- to 3-year all-cause mortality of patients with CHF comorbid with AF. Individual patients’ prognosis could also be obtained, and the subgroup of patients with a higher risk of mortality could be identified. It can help clinicians identify and manage high- and low-risk patients and carry out more targeted intervention measures to realize precision medicine and the optimal allocation of health care resources.