Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km² or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO₂ emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO₂ emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as ∼ 1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO₂ emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO₂ emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO₂ emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO₂ concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO₂ fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO₂ fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO₂ emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO₂ emissions modelling with ∼ 1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) scheme has been developed within the framework of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). This ROMS3DVAR enables the capability of predicting meso- to small-scale variations with temporal scales from hours to days in coastal oceans. To cope with particular difficulties that result from complex coastlines and bottom topography, unbalanced flows, and sparse observations, ROMS3DVAR includes novel strategies. These strategies include the implementation of three-dimensional anisotropic and inhomogeneous error correlations based on a Kronecker product, application of particular weak dynamic constraints, and implementation of efficient and reliable algorithms for minimizing the cost function. The formulation of ROMS3DVAR is presented here, and its implementation off the West Coast is currently under way.

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVAR) algorithm for aerosols in a WRF/Chem model is presented. The WRF/Chem model uses the MOSAIC (Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry) scheme, which explicitly treats eight major species (elemental/black carbon, organic carbon, nitrate, sulfate, chloride, ammonium, sodium and the sum of other inorganic, inert mineral and metal species) and represents size distributions using a sectional method with four size bins. The 3-DVAR scheme is formulated to take advantage of the MOSAIC scheme in providing comprehensive analyses of species concentrations and size distributions. To treat the large number of state variables associated with the MOSAIC scheme, this 3-DVAR algorithm first determines the analysis increments of the total mass concentrations of the eight species, defined as the sum of the mass concentrations across all size bins, and then distributes the analysis increments over four size bins according to the background error variances. The number concentrations for each size bin are adjusted based on the ratios between the mass and number concentrations of the background state. Additional flexibility is incorporated to further lump the eight mass concentrations, and five lumped species are used in the application presented. The system is evaluated using the analysis and prediction of PM_2.5 in the Los Angeles basin during the CalNex 2010 field experiment, with assimilation of surface PM_2.5 and speciated concentration observations. The results demonstrate that the data assimilation significantly reduces the errors in comparison with a simulation without data assimilation and improved forecasts of the concentrations of PM_2.5 as well as individual species for up to 24 h. Some implementation difficulties and limitations of the system are discussed.

A multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) scheme is formulated for fine-resolution models. A decomposition of the cost function is derived for a set of distinct spatial scales. The decomposed cost function allows for the background error covariance to be estimated separately for the distinct spatial scales, and multi-decorrelation scales to be explicitly incorporated in the background error covariance. MS-DA minimizes the partitioned cost functions sequentially from large to small scales. The multi-decorrelation length scale background error covariance enhances the spreading of sparse observations and prevents fine structures in high-resolution observations from being overly smoothed. The decomposition of the cost function also provides an avenue for mitigating the effects of scale aliasing and representativeness errors that inherently exist in a multiscale system, thus further improving the effectiveness of the assimilation of high-resolution observations. A set of one-dimensional experiments is performed to examine the properties of the MS-DA scheme. Emphasis is placed on the assimilation of patchy high-resolution observations representing radar and satellite measurements, alongside sparse observations representing those from conventional in situ platforms. The results illustrate how MS-DA improves the effectiveness of the assimilation of both these types of observations simultaneously.

The Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission is planned for launch in 2021. It will use the technique of radar interferometry to measure sea surface height over a 120‐km‐wide swath with a 20‐km gap around the satellite's nadir track. The oceanographic objectives of the mission are to study ocean circulation at scales down to 15 km. To prepare for the evaluation of the mission's performance, we are undertaking a series of studies to explore the efficacy of an assimilative high‐resolution modeling system for estimating the state of the ocean based on independent observations from both spaceborne and in situ measurements. The system is based on the heritage of a multiscale approach to data assimilation by the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Observing System Simulation Experiments were first conducted in the setup of an identical twin experiment to assess the system's performance near the calibration/validation site of SWOT off the coast of California. The system was applied to a nested model domain with 1‐km resolution. Simulated satellite observations of SSH, sea surface temperature, salinity, in situ observations of upper ocean temperature, and salinity by profiling floats and a dedicated notional array of station‐keeping gliders were assimilated by the system. The results indicate that such an observing system can accurately estimate the state of the ocean, and in particular SSH for the evaluation of SWOT performance.