With the intensification of climate change, land use changes, and human activities, the ecosystems of the Ordos Plateau face severe challenges. This study evaluates the current ecological stability of the Ordos Plateau and makes future ecological zoning predictions based on the coupling analysis of landscape ecological risk (LER) and ecosystem service value (ESV). By analyzing the changes in LER and ESV from 2000 to 2023, the study reveals the response characteristics of the region’s ecosystems under climate change and land use changes. The results show that the rational utilization of grasslands and forests has effectively improved land use efficiency, reduced ecological risks, and enhanced ecosystem service value. Ecological restoration projects in the Mu Us Sandy Land and Kubuqi Desert have promoted the transformation of ecologically fragile areas (Zone IV) into optimized management areas (Zone II). However, the Kubuqi Desert remains a core area of ecological fragility. When planning for the future of the Ordos Plateau, it is important to pay attention to the scientific planning of arable land development to prevent further deterioration of the ecological situation. The future scenario prediction based on the intPLUS model indicates that reasonable ecological management policies will contribute to the sustainable development of the region. The research results provide a theoretical framework and practical reference for ecological restoration and management in the Ordos Plateau and similar arid and semi-arid regions.

Understanding the community assembly mechanisms and stability of artificial sand-fixing forests is critical for the management of desert ecosystems. This study investigated the understory vegetation of four artificial sand-fixing shrub forests in the Mu Us Sandy Land to understand community assembly mechanisms and stability by analyzing niche characteristics, interspecific associations, and community stability. The results showed the following: (1) Lc (Leymus chinensis), Ee (Euphorbia esula), Gd (Grubovia dasyphylla), and Ch (Corispermum hyssopifolium) all have wide ecological niches and high importance values, serving as key species for maintaining community function. (2) The understory herbaceous plant communities of S. psammophila, A. ordosica and C. fruticosum exhibited low niche overlap, and the A. fruticosa understory herbaceous plant community showed high niche overlap. (3) The overall association of the understory herbaceous plant communities of S. psammophila, A. ordosica, and C. fruticosum is positive, while that of the understory herbaceous plant community of A. fruticosa is negative; the interspecific associations are weak, and the species show an independent distribution pattern. (4) Among the four understory herbaceous plant communities, the stability of the S. psammophila understory herbaceous plant community is relatively the highest, followed by A. ordosica and C. fruticosum understory herbaceous plant community, and the stability of A. fruticosa understory herbaceous plant community is the lowest. Furthermore, community stability was positively correlated with the variance ratio (VR) but negatively correlated with mean niche overlap. We recommend prioritizing S. psammophila and C. fruticosum for sand fixation and conserving key herbaceous species to optimize resource use and stabilize interspecific relationships. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated assessment of niche characteristics, interspecific associations, and community stability, and it primarily focused on the role of interspecific relationships. Future research should incorporate environmental drivers and shrub functional traits to disentangle the synergistic effects of biotic and abiotic factors, thereby providing a more robust scientific foundation for vegetation restoration in desert ecosystems.