In Kazakhstan’s Akmola Region, rural households face heightened vulnerability from climate change, driven by reliance on weather-dependent resources and amplified risks of extreme precipitation events, prolonged dry spells, and progressive soil degradation—further intensified by limited adaptive capacity and inequities affecting women-led or ethnic minority families. This study conducted stratified household surveys across four agricultural districts, developed a tailored Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) incorporating shelterbelt presence, condition, and perceived effects, alongside readiness for hydrological surface recovery (contour–strip organisation, swales/valokany, and tree–shrub planting). Results revealed an average LVI of 0.45–0.55, which was higher (+10–15%) in marginalized groups; testing pathways showed correlations (r = 0.65, p < 0.05) with water security, soil condition, income stability, and hazard reduction, with potential LVI reductions of 15–25% through integrated measures. District-specific recommendations include implementing the Potapenko–Lukin method on slopes <5% with valokany (width 80 cm, depth 1.5 m, spacing 100–500 m), endemic plantings, and biomaterial, supported by subsidies (488,028 tenge/ha/year) and GIS monitoring, to enhance resilience and equity in steppe and forest–steppe farming.

This study analyzes the interannual dynamics of fallow land extent in the North Kazakhstan Region during 2021–2025 using Sentinel-2 data. Fallow fields were identified through a rule-based multi-temporal approach in which the adapted Plowed Land Index (PLI) was used as the principal indicator of mechanically processed soil surfaces, while the NDVI was applied as a supporting indicator to exclude actively vegetated fields and control for vegetation overgrowth. Annual fallow masks were generated within a unified seasonal observation window and subsequently analyzed at the district level. The results revealed pronounced interannual variability in fallow land extent, including both reductions and partial recovery over the study period, together with substantial spatial heterogeneity among districts. The largest fallow area was recorded in 2021, whereas the minimum was observed in 2024. Comparison with district-level hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) values showed that lower moisture availability generally corresponded to larger fallow areas, while relatively more favorable hydrothermal conditions were associated with their reduction. At the same time, district-specific trajectories indicate that interannual dynamics were controlled not only by agroclimatic variability but also by differences in land-use structure and agricultural management. The proposed approach confirms the applicability of Sentinel-2 time series for regional monitoring of fallow lands and demonstrates the methodological value of the adapted PLI for identifying mechanically processed fallow surfaces under the heterogeneous agricultural conditions of North Kazakhstan.