In order to accurately characterize the temperature dependence of the high-temperature performance of asphalt pavement surface layer materials, this paper studies the effects of temperature, load, and number of actions on the high-temperature anti-rutting performance of asphalt pavement surface layer materials (AC-13 and AC-16 mixtures), based on indoor rutting tests, and constructs a high-temperature performance temperature-dependent model and rutting prediction model for surface layer materials. The results show that as the temperature increases, the dynamic stability of the mixture decreases in an S-shaped curve, and the rut depth increases exponentially. The temperature-dependent model transition temperatures for the dynamic stability of 70#, 50#, 30#, SBS, and HMB asphalt mixtures are 39 °C, 44 °C, 46 °C, 56 °C, and 56 °C, respectively. The dynamic stability of modified asphalt mixtures is significantly higher than that of base asphalt mixtures. The depth of wheel ruts is affected by temperature, load, and the number of actions. The variation ranges of the load index k_P, the temperature index k_T, and the number of actions index k_N are 0.727–1.222, 1.926–2.177, and 0.133–0.295, respectively. The correlation coefficients of the wheel rut prediction model are all above 0.95, and the depth of wheel ruts can be predicted by the model.

To investigate the rutting resistance of Large Stone Asphalt Mixture (nominal maximum aggregate size of 53 mm, abbreviated as LSAM-50), this study evaluated the effects of temperature, load, and their interaction on the rutting performance of LSAM-50 through large-thickness rutting tests. It analyzed the characteristics of rutting deformation under varying thermal and loading conditions, established a permanent deformation-temperature-load dependency model, and explored the correlations between permanent deformation and high-temperature evaluation indicators. The findings indicate that the temperature-load interaction fundamentally alters the load-transfer mechanism between the viscoelastic matrix and coarse aggregates within LSAM-50, thereby activating the interlocking effect of its thick structural skeleton. The dynamic stability undergoes a pronounced reduction as temperature or load increases, peaking at a degradation rate of 40–57% within the 40–50 °C interval. Furthermore, the rutting deformation of the LSAM-50 mixture demonstrates significant temperature and load dependency; as the number of loading cycles increases, the deformation exhibits an initial rapid escalation before reaching a plateau. During temperature elevation and load escalation, the rutting deformation increases in a step-wise manner. Notably, the preliminary application of low temperatures and light loads imparts a substantial “training” effect on the material’s rutting resistance. Once the mixture is wheel-tracked to densification under high temperatures or heavy loads, negligible new deformation is generated during the subsequent cooling or unloading phases. Specifically, upon the initial unloading from 1.1 MPa to 0.9 MPa, the incremental deformation is merely 0.04 mm; upon further unloading to 0.7 MPa, the additional deformation approaches 0 mm. The established permanent deformation-temperature-load dependency model for LSAM-50 yields a high predictive correlation of 96%. Moreover, the permanent deformation exhibits robust linear relationships with 1-h rutting depth (R² = 0.95), compressive strength (R² = 0.91), and shear strength (R² = 0.97). These indicators can thus facilitate the rapid and precise estimation of permanent pavement deformation.