As critical minerals required for the production of new energy batteries, the demand forecasts and trends for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn are of crucial importance for ensuring the energy transition and China’s sustainable development. This study has developed a comprehensive analytical framework, combining dynamic material flow analysis, stock-driven forecasting, and scenario analysis to conduct a life-cycle assessment of the critical mineral resources (2010–2060). (1) Retrospective estimates show that in 2024, demand for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn reached 117 kt, 79 kt, 78 kt, and 45 kt, respectively. By 2060, the maximum demand for these minerals is projected to rise to 651 kt, 1090 kt, 1080 kt, and 757 kt, respectively. (2) Li is the mineral with the highest demand. Under different recovery scenarios, the lithium substitution rates reach 55.4%, 68.3%, and 85.3%, respectively. Given that the demand in cascade utilisation is far lower than the volume of retired new energy vehicle batteries, a cascade utilisation rate exceeding 23% would theoretically suffice to meet the entire relevant market demand. To secure the supply of critical minerals for energy batteries, this study suggests accelerating the construction of standardised recycling systems and implementing strict entry approvals to prevent overcapacity.

To address carbon cost pressures from the CBAM and fluctuation in China’s domestic carbon-pricing mechanism, it is crucial to design a carbon quota allocation scheme for China’s steel industry that balances total quantity control and structural optimization. This study comprehensively considers the industry’s LCA and regional heterogeneity, introduces indicators related to “energy transformation contribution”, and employs the maximum deviation method and harmony allocation model to calculate and evaluate provincial quotas and their performance. Results show that: (1) Under the national total quantity control strategy, China’s steel industry carbon quota will be reduced to 1770 Mt by 2030; (2) Calculated via the maximum deviation method, the energy transformation contribution index accounts for 18.95% of the total contribution of all factors, while the LCA index accounts for 46.61%; (3) The maximum inter-provincial difference in carbon quotas reaches 175 Mt, reflecting significant heterogeneity in ecological carrying capacity, resource-allocation efficiency, and emission-reduction potential across regions. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing China’s unified carbon-market mechanism and guiding the steel industry’s energy transition, and offers a reference for developing countries to address international carbon barriers through regionally differentiated strategies.