Course recommendation is a critical service in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) that helps learners discover relevant courses from massive online educational platforms. Despite substantial progress in this field, two key challenges remain unresolved: (1) existing methods fail to leverage the differences in learners’ interests across different courses during knowledge propagation processes, and (2) while sequential relationships have been considered in course recommendations, there is still significant room for improvement in effectively integrating sequential patterns with knowledge-graph-based approaches. To overcome these limitations, we propose PGDB (Preference-aware Graph Diffusion network and Bi-LSTM), an innovative end-to-end framework for course recommendation. Our model consists of four key components: First, a course knowledge graph diffusion module recursively collects multiple knowledge triples related to learners to construct their knowledge background. Second, a preference-aware diffusion attention mechanism analyzes learners’ preferences for courses and relational paths using multi-head attention, effectively distinguishing semantic diversity across different contexts and capturing varying learner interests during knowledge transmission. Third, a temporal sequence modeling module utilizes bidirectional long short-term memory networks to identify learners’ interest evolution patterns, generating learner-dependent representations that efficiently leverage sequential relationships between courses. Finally, a prediction module combines the final representations of learners and courses to output selection probabilities for candidate courses. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that PGDB significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models across multiple evaluation metrics, validating the effectiveness of our approach in addressing data sparsity and sequential modeling challenges in course recommendation systems.

The rapid development of intelligent learning guidance systems has created a favorable environment for personalized learning. By accurately predicting students’ future performance, education can be tailored and teaching strategies optimized. However, traditional prediction algorithms seldom account for highly imbalanced datasets in basic education, overlook temporal factors, and lack further interpretability of the prediction results. To address these shortcomings, we propose Temporal Variational Autoencoder-Generative Adversarial Network (TVAE-GAN), a temporal variational autoencoder-generative adversarial network model aimed at providing early warnings for high-risk students in basic education, with in-depth interpretability analysis of the prediction results to suit the unique context of basic education. TVAE-GAN extracts features from real samples and introduces a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture dynamic features in time series, helping the model better understand temporal dependencies in the data, remember the sequential causal information of students’ online learning, and achieve better data generation performance. Using these features, the generative model generates new samples, and the discriminator model evaluates their quality, producing outputs that closely resemble real samples through training. The effectiveness of the TVAE-GAN model is validated on a collected online basic education dataset while also advancing the timing of interventions in predictions. The performance differences between the proposed method and classic resampling methods, as well as their impact in the educational field, are analyzed, highlighting that misclassification increases teacher workload and affects students’ emotions. Key influencing factors are identified using a decision-tree surrogate model, providing teachers with multidimensional references for academic assessment.