The subseasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis by large-scale atmospheric wave modes is studied using data from the south Indian Ocean region. The modes considered are the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and the convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER), Kelvin, and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves. Analysis of all TCs west of 100°E reveals a large and statistically significant modulation by the MJO and ER waves, a small yet significant modulation by Kelvin waves, and a statistically insignificant modulation by MRG waves. Attribution of the observed TC modulation was made through examination of the wave-induced perturbations to the dynamical fields of low-level vorticity, vertical shear, and deep convection. Possible thermodynamic influences on TC genesis were neglected. Different combinations of the three dynamical fields were necessary for successful attribution for each of the large-scale wave modes. For example, for the MJO, the modulation was best attributable to its perturbations to both the vorticity and shear fields, while for the ER wave, it was its perturbations to the convection and vorticity fields that appeared to best be able to explain the modulation. It appears that there is no single factor that can be used for the attribution of all subseasonal TC variability. Finally, it is shown that the modulation of TCs by at least the MJO and ER waves is large enough to warrant further investigation for prediction on the weekly time scale.

This paper aims at separating the respective influences of tropical and midlatitude variability on the development and life cycle of tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa in austral summer (November–February). Cluster analysis is applied to 1971–2000 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies to identify TTTs and monitor tropical convection. The same analysis applied to the zonal wind stretching deformation at 200 hPa (ZDEF) characterizes midlatitude transient perturbations. Results based on the comparison between these two classifications first confirm that midlatitude baroclinic waves are a necessary condition for TTT development, but they are not sufficient. Roughly 40% of those occurring in austral summer are associated with a TTT. They tend to be stronger than the baroclinic waves not associated with TTT development. In the tropics, additional conditions needed to form a TTT consist of an excess of latent energy over the Mozambique Channel, mostly because of moisture advections and convergence from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Taken together, these conditions are highly favorable for deep atmospheric convection over and near southern Africa and seem to explain a large fraction of TTT variability.

A novel thermal convection cell consisting of half a soap bubble heated at the equator is introduced to study thermal convection and the movement of isolated vortices. The soap bubble, subject to stratification, develops thermal convection at its equator. A particular feature of this cell is the emergence of isolated vortices. These vortices resemble hurricanes or cyclones and similarities between our observed structures and these natural objects are found. This is brought forth through a study of the mean square displacement of these objects showing signs of superdiffusion.

Using daily rain gauge records for Madagascar and nearby islands, this paper investigates rainfall intraseasonal variability at local and regional scales during the austral summer season (November–February), as well as the respective influences of recurrent convective regimes over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The results show a general consistency between local-scale rainfall variability in Madagascar and regional-scale features of climate variability. The influence of tropical temperate troughs in their mature phase and/or their easternmost locations is first underlined. The development of such systems over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel can be considered as precursors for Malagasy wet spells, especially over the southern part of the island. Regional and local effects of the MJO are weaker on average, and only concern the northwest of the island and the north of the Mozambique Channel. MJO and convective regimes are finally shown to explain distinct fractions of regional rainfall variability.