Monitoring the stability of hydraulic structures such as dams and reservoirs in seismically active regions is essential for ensuring their safety and operational reliability. This study presents a comprehensive geospatial approach combining lineament analysis and geodynamic zoning to assess the structural stability of the Voroshilov and Priyut reservoirs located in the Almaty region, Kazakhstan. A regional lineament map was generated using ASTER GDEM data, while ALOS PALSAR data were used for detailed local analysis. Lineaments were extracted and analyzed through automated processing in PCI Geomatica. Lineament density maps and azimuthal rose diagrams were constructed to identify zones of tectonic weakness and assess regional structural patterns. Integration of lineament density, GPS velocity fields, InSAR deformation data, and probabilistic seismic hazard maps enabled the development of a detailed geodynamic zoning model. Results show that the studied sites are located within zones of low local geodynamic activity, with lineament densities of 0.8–1.2 km/km², significantly lower than regional averages of 3–4 km/km². GPS velocities in the area do not exceed 4 mm/year, and InSAR analysis indicates minimal surface deformation (<5 mm/year). Despite this apparent local stability, the 2024 Voroshilov Dam failure highlights the cumulative effect of regional seismic stresses (PGA up to 0.9 g) and localized filtration along fracture zones as critical risk factors. The proposed geodynamic zoning correctly identified the site as structurally stable under normal conditions but indicates that even low-activity zones are vulnerable under cumulative seismic loading. This demonstrates that an integrated approach combining remote sensing, geodetic, and seismic data can provide quantitative assessments for dam safety, predict potential high-risk zones, and support preventive monitoring in tectonically active regions.

This study presents a comprehensive numerical simulation of reservoir dam failure based on the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model MIKE 21. To reproduce the real accident process, a detailed digital elevation model derived from LiDAR survey data was constructed, incorporating valley microtopography, river channel geometry, and hydraulic structure elements. The modeling was performed in a stepwise manner and included the simulation of breach formation using a time-varying digital elevation model, the drawdown of the reservoir, and the propagation of the dam-break flood wave in the downstream reach, as well as an assessment of the hydrodynamic impact of the flow on small dams located further downstream. The simulations produced spatiotemporal distributions of flow depths and velocities, quantified the temporal evolution of reservoir water volume, and determined overflow parameters at the small dams. Based on the analysis of bed shear stress distribution, zones of increased hydrodynamic loading were identified and compared with observed damage areas. The results confirm the applicability of the adopted modeling framework for detailed reconstruction of dam-break events. The proposed approach can be applied both to the analysis of past dam failures and for predictive purposes when assessing the potential consequences of possible accidents at other reservoirs. The methodology enables preliminary evaluation of inundation zones, erosion intensity, and impacts on downstream hydraulic structures, making it a valuable tool for safety assessment and the planning of protective measures in areas with complex terrain conditions.