The Silver pheasant, a species in the Phasianidae family, is a widely distributed ground-dwelling bird in southern China and a national Class II protected animal. Global climate change and land use and land cover change are recognized as major drivers of wildlife habitat loss and shift, especially for species with low dispersal ability, like the Silver pheasant. However, no studies have assessed the influence of climate change and land-cover change on suitable habitat at the regional scale. In this study, we aim to assess the combined effects of climate change and land cover change on the habitat of the Silver pheasant. We used an ensemble species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for the Silver pheasant under the current scenario and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) across two time periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100). The results demonstrate that the ensemble model outperforms individual models in predicting suitable habitat for the Silver pheasant. The ensemble model achieved an area under the receiver’s operating curve (AUC) of 0.90, a true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.61, and a Boyce index of 0.96, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, suitable habitat for the Silver pheasant in China, covering 4.33 × 10⁵ km², primarily exists in eight provinces (Sichuan, Yunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Hunan). Land cover emerged as the most influential variable (43%), followed by annual precipitation amount (36%), elevation (9%), and slope (6%). Silver pheasant is projected to experience large habitat expansion (24.24% to 63.08%) depending on different scenarios and time. The centroid of suitable habitat is expected to shift northeastward, but with short distances (<39 km). Our results provide accurate predictions of the distribution patterns of the Silver pheasant habitat in China under current and future environmental change scenarios, which is the fundamental basis for scientific-based management and conservation decisions at the national level.

Handeliodendron bodinieri is a rare tree species endemic to the karst mountains of southwestern China and is listed as a national Class II key protected wild plant. Due to its highly specialized habitat requirements and limited reproductive dispersal ability, the species is exceptionally vulnerable to environmental changes. To predict the impacts of future climate change on its habitat suitability while minimizing predictive uncertainties, this study compiled multi-source occurrence data alongside bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. We deployed an ensemble species distribution modeling framework to project the current and future (2100) distribution patterns and dynamic shifts in suitable habitat for H. bodinieri under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Three independent evaluation metrics (AUCprg, TSS, and the Boyce index) consistently demonstrated that the ensemble model significantly outperformed individual algorithmic models (GLM, MARS, MAXENT, and RFd). Under current conditions, the weighted-average ensemble model estimated the suitable habitat area for H. bodinieri to be 70,582 km². By 2100, the suitable habitat area is projected to contract under all three SSP scenarios, with reduction rates ranging from 27.38% to 80.43%. Concurrently, the centroid of the suitable habitat is expected to shift southeastward or southward by 13–40 km, accompanied by varying degrees of shifts in mean elevation. Furthermore, we identified climate-insensitive regions across the scenarios, which are primarily clustered along the border between Guangxi and Guizhou provinces. Our study provides a robust scientific foundation for formulating effective conservation and management strategies for H. bodinieri amidst ongoing climate change, ultimately maintaining the sustainable survival of the species.