Tamara JOJIĆ GLAVONJIĆ, Dejan DOLJAK, Jovana BRANKOV & Marko FILIPOVIĆ - RESIDENTS' PERCEPTION TOWARD PROTECTED AREAS −LANDSCAPE OF EXCEPTIONAL FEATURES "VLASINA" (SERBIA), Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, February 2019, Vol. 14, No. 1, p. 5 - 17; DOI:10.26471/cjees/2019/014/053

The transition period of post-socialist cities brought significant demographic and spatial changes within their daily urban systems (DUS). Functional transformations of the core, as well as functionally dependent settlements in the mentioned systems, had a significant impact on the daily mobility of the population. For the purposes of this paper, the example of Belgrade was taken as the core of the most significant DUS on the territory of Serbia, and beyond its borders. As a research time frame the focus is on the first intercensal period of the 21st century, taking into account social and economic changes in that period. The daily mobility of the labor force was used as a relevant indicator of the functional manifestation of the work center and the functional direction of the residential settlement. A model of the spatial manifestation of the workforce daily mobility was used as a basis for researching the structure, changes, and determining the boundaries of the territorial scope of the DUS. Based on the presented results, dynamic changes within the DUS of Belgrade were determined, which are manifested through an increase in its spatial and population coverage, as well as through the changes in the degree of functional dependence of the settlements that participate in it. Conclusions were drawn on the connection between the transformation of the DUS and its demographic component, as well as the factors that initiate the investigated changes.

This paper tackles spatial mobility of the population in the Republic of Serbia, according to the census data from 1981 to 2011, and annual data given by The Statistical office of the Republic of Serbia from 2002-2013. The aim of this paper is to establish the basic characteristics of the inner population mobility and to point out the regional inequalities. Analysis shows that on the territory of Serbia there is inter-municipal definitive and temporary migration, and that its direction and intensity change over time. Increased population mobility can be observed towards Belgrade area, as well as other regional centers: Novi Sad, Kragujevac, Nis. The conclusion is that Serbia is in its late transition phase of spatial mobility of population, with prominent daily migrations in large city areas, especially Belgrade area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007: Geografija Srbije]

This study analyses the spatial–temporal differences between daytime and nighttime populations in Serbia’s largest urban centres—Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš—using data from the 2022 Population Census and 2018 Urban Atlas land-use classifications. The Diurnal Population Change Index (Idpc) was applied to identify areas with predominantly work-oriented or residential functions. Results show that Belgrade attracts nearly 147,000 inbound commuters daily, accounting for 18.5% of all commuting workers in Serbia, while Novi Sad and Niš exert strong but regionally confined influences. The greatest differences between day and night population densities occur in continuous urban fabric and industrial–commercial zones, highlighting the dominant role of central business areas. Integration of census, functional, and geospatial data allowed for a more precise interpretation of functional structures and commuting patterns. The study also demonstrated the analytical potential of combining Urban Atlas classifications with 3D visualisation for identifying daytime “hotspots” and communicating urban dynamics. The findings underline the importance of incorporating temporary population models into urban planning, transport management, and emergency preparedness, and provide a methodological basis for further research on temporary populations and commuting in the context of spatial and functional urban analysis.

Demographic factors such as age, income, household composition, and population growth profoundly impact housing markets, affecting prices, housing provisions, needs, and types. In post-socialist countries, transition processes, historical heritage, socio-cultural, and political factors additionally influenced demographic trends and trends in housing markets. In these countries, depopulation was one of the significant demographic features. However, modern depopulation trends, characteristic of most developed countries, have not directly impacted trends in the number of apartments but rather on their structural features and spatial distribution. This paper analyzes the relationships between demographic factors and trends in housing developments in Serbia, which are characterized by certain specificities. According to data from the last four Censuses (1991, 2002, 2011, 2022), in the territory of Serbia, in the period from the beginning of the 1990s, a continuous increase in the number of apartments was recorded, while the number of inhabitants was in constant decline. The differences were in their intensity and relationship with population indicators. Trends in housing developments in Serbia are reflected in the increase in the number of apartments, primarily in urban areas, as well as through qualitative characteristics. Changes in the ownership structure of apartments were particularly highlighted. The outlines of the base of apartments in social ownership from the second half of the 20th century were visible until the mid-1990s, while in the following years, they almost completely disappeared. This led to Serbia becoming one of the countries with the smallest share of apartments in public ownership. Regarding this indicator, regional differences within the country are more pronounced compared to the trend of the total number of apartments. They are exceptionally prominent in parts of Serbia, with a specific demographic picture and zones where the secondary sector of the economy is dominant.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of mortality in Serbia, with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) accounting for a substantial share of premature mortality. In alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 3.4, which aims to reduce premature mortality from NCD by one-third by 2030 relative to 2015, this study forecasts changes in CVD mortality counts at the municipal level in Serbia. Time-series data for the period 2005–2022 were analyzed within a spatio-temporal forecasting framework implemented in the Space Time Pattern Mining toolbox in ArcGIS Pro (Version 3.1). Three established forecasting models (Curve Fit Forecast, Exponential Smoothing, and Forest-based) were applied, and the most accurate model for each municipality was selected using location-specific municipality-level validation. The results reveal pronounced spatial variation: approximately half of the municipalities (51.2%) are forecasted to experience a decline in CVD mortality counts by 2030, while others are expected to show increases or no statistically significant change. Forecasted differences range from a 15.1% decrease to a 13.9% increase across municipalities, indicating heterogeneous spatial trajectories and suggesting that achieving SDG Target 3.4 may remain challenging without targeted interventions across municipalities where mortality reductions are not forecasted. Although the study does not introduce new forecasting methods, it provides a novel spatially disaggregated application of multi-model forecasting to support municipality-level monitoring of SDG 3.4. The results underscore the need for geographically differentiated public health policies and demonstrate the value of spatial forecasting approaches for supporting equitable and targeted health planning.