Trigger mechanisms are proposed for gas hydrate decomposition, methane emissions, and glacier collapse in polar regions. These mechanisms are due to tectonic deformation waves in the lithosphere–asthenosphere system, caused by large earthquakes in subduction zones, located near the polar regions: the Aleutian arc, closest to the Arctic, and the Antarctica–Chilean and Tonga–Kermadec–Macquarie subduction zones. Disturbances of the lithosphere are transmitted over long distances (of the order of 2000–3000 km and more) at a speed of about 100 km/year. Additional stresses associated with them come to the Arctic and Antarctica several decades after the occurrence of seismic events. On the Arctic shelf, additional stresses destroy the microstructure of metastable gas hydrates located in frozen rocks at shallow depths, releasing the methane trapped in them and leading to filtration and emissions. In West Antarctica, these wave stresses lead to decreases in the adhesions of the covered glaciers with underlying bedrock, sharp accelerations of their sliding into the sea, and fault occurrences, reducing pressure on the underlying rocks containing gas hydrates, which leads to their decomposition and methane emissions.

We analyzed long-term satellite geodesic observations after the Simushir earthquakes of 2006–2007. Application of a key model of the structure of the island arc regions combined with a model of nonstationary convective system in the upper mantle allowed us to find a consistent explanation of the motion of the Earth’s surface and distinguish the segments of the island arc at different stages of the seismic cycle.

Catastrophic megaearthquakes (M > 8) occurring in the subduction zones are among the most devastating hazards on the planet. In this paper we discuss the seismic cycles of the megathrust earthquakes and propose a blockwise geomechanical model explaining certain features of the stress-deformation cycle revealed in recent decades from seismological and satellite geodesy (GNSS) observations. Starting with an overview of the so-called keyboard model of the seismic cycle by L. Lobkovsky, we outline mathematical formalism describing the motion of seismogenic block system assuming viscous rheology beneath and between the neighboring elastic blocks sitting on top of the subducting slab. By summarizing the GNSS-based evidence from our previous studies concerning the transient motions associated with the 2006–2007 Simushir earthquakes, 2010 Maule earthquake, and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we demonstrate that those data support the keyboard model and reveal specific effect of the postseismic oceanward motion. However, since the seismogenic blocks in subduction systems are mostly located offshore, the direct analysis of GNSS-measured displacements and velocities is hardly possible in terms of the original keyboard model. Hence, the generalized two-segment keyboard model is introduced, containing both frontal offshore blocks and rear onshore blocks, which allows for direct interpretation of the onshore-collected GNSS data. We present a numerical computation scheme and a series of simulated data, which exhibits the consistency with measured motions and enables estimating the seismic cycle characteristics, important for the long-term earthquake forecasting.

The combined approach is used for studying recent tectonic activity in the central part of the East European Craton (EEC).This approach incorporates the methods of automated lineament analysis and satellite geodesy with the conventional geological mapping analysis. The space tectonic map (space image based) is reconstructed, and morphostructures that are active at the recent and present tectonic stage are delineated by processing the Landsat image mosaic. The direction and rate of horizontal displacement of crustal blocks, which is caused by deep geodynamical processes, are determined using the GPS data. The study is preliminary since only few GPS stations within the EEC have sufficiently long time series of observations.