Geological heterogeneity is a very important factor to consider when developing geological models for hydrological purposes. Using statistically based stochastic geological simulations, the spatial heterogeneity in such models can be accounted for. However, various types of uncertainties are associated with both the geostatistical method and the observation data. In the present study, TProGS is used as the geostatistical modeling tool to simulate structural heterogeneity for glacial deposits in a head water catchment in Denmark. The focus is on how the observation data uncertainty can be incorporated in the stochastic simulation process. The study uses two types of observation data: borehole data and airborne geophysical data. It is commonly acknowledged that the density of the borehole data is usually too sparse to characterize the horizontal heterogeneity. The use of geophysical data gives an unprecedented opportunity to obtain high‐resolution information and thus to identify geostatistical properties more accurately especially in the horizontal direction. However, since such data are not a direct measurement of the lithology, larger uncertainty of point estimates can be expected as compared to the use of borehole data. We have proposed a histogram probability matching method in order to link the information on resistivity to hydrofacies, while considering the data uncertainty at the same time. Transition probabilities and Markov Chain models are established using the transformed geophysical data. It is shown that such transformation is in fact practical; however, the cutoff value for dividing the resistivity data into facies is difficult to determine. The simulated geological realizations indicate significant differences of spatial structure depending on the type of conditioning data selected. It is to our knowledge the first time that grid‐to‐grid airborne geophysical data including the data uncertainty are used in conditional geostatistical simulations in TProGS. Therefore, it provides valuable insights regarding the advantages and challenges of using such comprehensive data.
1 January 2014 in Science of The Total Environment
Irrigation is the greatest human interference with the terrestrial water cycle. Detailed knowledge on irrigation is required to better manage water resources and to increase water use efficiency (WUE). This study applies a framework to quantify net irrigation at monthly timescale at a spatial resolution of 1 km2 providing high spatial and temporal detail for regional water resources management. The study is conducted in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in China encompassing the North China Plain (NCP), a global hot spot of groundwater depletion. Net irrigation is estimated based on the systematic evapotranspiration (ET) residuals between a remote sensing‐based model and a hydrologic model that does not include an irrigation scheme. The results suggest an average annual net irrigation of 126 mm yr−1 (15.2 km3 yr−1) for NCP and 108 mm yr−1 (18.6 km3 yr−1) for HRB. It is found that net irrigation can be estimated with higher fidelity for winter crops than for summer crops. The simulated water balance for NCP is evaluated with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, and the net irrigation estimates can close the water balance gap. Annual winter wheat classifications reveal an increasing crop area with a trend of 2,200 km2 yr−1. This trend is not accompanied by a likewise increasing trend in irrigation water use, which suggests an increased WUE in the NCP, which is further supported by net primary productivity data. The proposed framework has potential to be transferred to other regions and support decision makers to support sustainable water management.
Seasonal variations of tile drainage discharge were simulated in the 6 km2 Fensholt catchment, Denmark, with the coupled surface and subsurface HydroGeoSphere model. The catchment subsurface is represented in the model by 3 m of topsoil and clay, underlain by a heterogeneous distribution of sand and clay units. Two subsurface drainage networks were represented as nodal sinks. The spatial distribution of the heterogeneous units was generated stochastically and their hydraulic properties were calibrated to reproduce drainage discharge for one network and verified with drainage discharge for the other network. Simulated discharge was compared to that of another model for which the heterogeneous sand and clay units were replaced by a homogeneous unit, whose hydraulic conductivity was the mean value of the heterogeneous model. With the homogeneous model, drainage dynamics were correctly simulated but drainage discharge was less accurate compared to the heterogeneous model. Simulated discharge was also compared to that of a larger‐scale model created with the MIKE SHE code, built with the same heterogeneous model. HydroGeoSphere and MIKE SHE generated drainage discharge that was significantly different, with better simulated groundwater dynamics data produced by HydroGeoSphere. Nodal sinks in HydroGeoSphere reproduced drain flow peaks more accurately. Calibration against drainage discharge data suggests that drain flow is controlled primarily by geological heterogeneities included in the model and, to a lesser extent, by the nature of the soil units located between the drains and ground surface.
6 August 2014 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
In traditional hydrogeological investigations, one geological model is often used based on subjective interpretations and sparse data availability. This deterministic approach usually does not account for any uncertainties. Stochastic simulation methods address this problem and can capture the geological structure uncertainty. In this study the geostatistical software TProGS is utilized to simulate an ensemble of realizations for a binary (sand/clay) hydrofacies model in the Norsminde catchment, Denmark. TProGS can incorporate soft data, which represent the associated level of uncertainty. High-density (20 m × 20 m × 2 m) airborne geophysical data (SkyTEM) and categorized borehole data are utilized to define the model of spatial variability in horizontal and vertical direction, respectively, and both are used for soft conditioning of the TProGS simulations. The category probabilities for the SkyTEM data set are derived from a histogram probability matching method, where resistivity is paired with the corresponding lithology from the categorized borehole data. This study integrates two distinct data sources into the stochastic modeling process that represent two extremes of the conditioning density spectrum: sparse borehole data and abundant SkyTEM data. In the latter the data have a strong spatial correlation caused by its high data density, which triggers the problem of overconditioning. This problem is addressed by a work-around utilizing a sampling/decimation of the data set, with the aim to reduce the spatial correlation of the conditioning data set. In the case of abundant conditioning data, it is shown that TProGS is capable of reproducing non-stationary trends. The stochastic realizations are validated by five performance criteria: (1) sand proportion, (2) mean length, (3) geobody connectivity, (4) facies probability distribution and (5) facies probability–resistivity bias. In conclusion, a stochastically generated set of realizations soft-conditioned to 200 m moving sampling of geophysical data performs most satisfactorily when balancing the five performance criteria. The ensemble can be used in subsequent hydrogeological flow modeling to address the predictive uncertainty originating from the geological structure uncertainty.