Understanding the hydrological process associated with Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC) change is vital for decision-makers in improving human wellbeing. LU/LC change significantly affects the hydrology of the landscape, caused by anthropogenic activities. The scope of this study is to investigate the impact of LU/LC change on the hydrological process of Upper Baro Basin for the years 1987, 2002, and 2017. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for the simulation of the streamflow. The required data for the SWAT model are soils obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization; Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and LU/LC were obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The meteorological data such as Rainfall, Temperature, Sunshine, Humidity, and Wind Speeds were obtained from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency. Data on discharge were obtained from Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity. Ecosystems are deemed vital. Landsat images were used to classify the LU/LC pattern using ERDAS Imagine 2014 software and the LU/LC were classified using the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm of Supervised Classification. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) global sensitivity method within SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Procedures (SWAT-CUP) was used to identify the most sensitive streamflow parameters. The calibration was carried out using observed streamflow data from 01 January 1990 to 31 December 2002 and a validation period from 01 January 2003 to 31 December 2009. LU/LC analysis shows that there was a drastic decrease of grassland by 15.64 and shrubland by 9.56 while an increase of agricultural land and settlement by 18.01 and 13.01, respectively, for 30 years. The evaluation of the SWAT model presented that the annual surface runoff increased by 43.53mm, groundwater flow declined by 27.58mm, and lateral flow declined by 5.63mm. The model results showed that the streamflow characteristics changed due to the LU/LC change during the study periods 19872017 such as change of flood frequency, increased peak flows, base flow, soil erosion, and annual mean discharge. Curve number, an available water capacity of the soil layer, and soil evaporation composition factor were the most sensitive parameters identified for the streamflow. Both the calibration and validation results disclosed a good agreement between measured and simulated streamflow. The performance of the model statistical test shows the coefficient of determination (R²) and NashSutcliffe (NS) efficiency values 0.87 and 0.81 for calibration periods of 19902002 and 0.84 and 0.76 for the validation period of 2003 to 2009, respectively. Overall, LU/LC significantly affected the hydrological condition of the watershed. Therefore, different conservation strategies to maintain the stability and resilience of the ecosystem are vital.

Understanding how climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics influence watershed hydrological processes is essential for achieving sustainable water and land management, particularly in data‐scarce and erosion‐prone basins. This study assesses the individual and synergistic effects of CMIP6‐based climate projections and LULC change on sediment yield and surface runoff in the Baro River sub‐basin. Utilizing a comprehensive hydrological modeling framework, this study integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble climate projections under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios to simulate runoff in addition to sediment yield. We projected future LULC dynamics (2024–2064) using a multi‐layer perceptron–cellular automata–Markov chain (MLP‐CA‐MC) model. Results indicate statistically significant warming in both historical and future periods, with mean temperature increases of up to 3.4°C under SSP5‐8.5, alongside precipitation increases of 6%–13%. LULC projections (2024–2064) indicate an 18%–26% increase in agricultural and settlement areas at the expense of forest, grassland, and shrubland. The SWAT model demonstrated high predictive accuracy; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values remained strong across both calibration (runoff: > 0.87; sediment: > 0.76) and validation (runoff: 0.84; sediment: 0.73). Projected sediment yield increases from a 2024 baseline of 49.23 t/ha to as high as 157.68 t/ha over the late period (2072–2100) under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario with 2064 land use conditions. Similarly, surface runoff is expected to peak at 966.58 mm under high‐emission conditions. These results highlight the critical sensitivity of the Baro River sub‐basin to both climate variability and anthropogenic land degradation, underscoring the urgent need for integrated watershed management to mitigate downstream sedimentation and ensure the sustainability of water infrastructure.