The accelerating global transition to electric mobility demands data-driven infrastructure planning that balances technical, economic, and spatial considerations. This study develops a scenario-based demand and economic modeling framework to estimate electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure needs across Abu Dhabi’s urban and rural regions through 2050. Two adoption pathways, Progressive and Thriving, were constructed to capture contrasting policy and technological trajectories consistent with the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 targets. The model integrates regional travel behavior, energy consumption (0.23–0.26 kWh/km), and differentiated charging patterns to project EV penetration, charging demand, and economic feasibility. Results indicate that EV stocks may reach 750,000 (Progressive) and 1.1 million (Thriving) by 2050. The Thriving scenario, while demanding greater capital investment (≈108 million AED), yields higher utilization, improved spatial equity (Gini = 0.27), and stronger long-term returns compared to the Progressive case. Only 17.6% of communities currently meet infrastructure readiness thresholds, emphasizing the need for coordinated grid expansion and equitable deployment strategies. Findings provide a quantitative basis for balancing economic efficiency, spatial equity, and policy ambition in the design of sustainable EV charging networks for emerging low-carbon cities.

This study develops a multi-criteria and AI-assisted optimization framework that integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), K-means clustering, and Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to optimize electric vehicle (EV) charging station deployment across Abu Dhabi’s urban–rural gradient. The model generates a community-level Spatial Suitability Index (mean = 0.47) based on residential, commercial, and accessibility factors, which inform clustering into five deployment typologies reflecting distinct socio-spatial characteristics. GA-based spatial optimization under two policy pathways, Progressive and Thriving, balances accessibility, grid proximity, and utilization efficiency. Results show that the Thriving scenario achieves approximately 15–20% higher network coverage and equity compared to the Progressive case, demonstrating the value of adaptive, data-driven optimization for mixed urban–rural contexts. The integrated AHP–Clustering–GA approach provides a transferable and scalable blueprint for equitable, low-carbon mobility infrastructure planning in rapidly developing regions.