Juan Nazario Arancibia

Dr. Juan Nazario Arancibia


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

2Years (2025-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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18 December 2025 in Future Internet
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JVJose Villegas-Ortega
Jose Villegas-Ortega
LALuis Napoleon Quiroz Aviles
Luis Napoleon Quiroz Aviles
JAJuan Nazario Arancibia
Juan Nazario Arancibia
WMWilder Carpio Montenegro
Wilder Carpio Montenegro
Rosa DelgadilloRosa Delgadillo
Rosa Delgadillo
DMDavid Mauricio
David Mauricio
Health insurance fraud (HIF) places a substantial economic burden on global health systems. While supervised machine learning (SML) offers a promising solution for its detection, most approaches are ad hoc and lack a systematic methodological framework that ensures replicability, adaptability, and effectiveness, especially in contexts with severe class imbalance. We developed PDHIF (Phases for Detecting Fraud in Health Insurance), a six-phase systematic methodology that introduces a holistic focus that integrates fraud theory, actors, manifestations, and factors with the complete SML lifecycle. We applied this methodology in a case study using a dataset of 8.5 million claims from a public health insurance system in Peru. We trained and evaluated three SML models (Random Forest, XGBoost, and multilayer perceptron) in two experimental scenarios: one with the original, highly unbalanced dataset and another with a training set balanced via the K-means SMOTE technique. When PDHIF was applied, the results revealed a stark contrast: in the unbalanced scenario, the models were ineffective at detecting fraud (F1 score < 0.521) despite high accuracy (>98%). In the balanced scenario, the performance improved dramatically. The best-performing model, RF, achieved an F1 score of 0.994, a sensitivity of 0.994, and an AUC of 0.994 on the test set, demonstrating a robust ability to distinguish suspicious claims.