This paper outlines land-use/landscape pattern changes and relationships between land-use change trajectories and environmental variables in the Dong ethnic-minority village of Gaoyou in southwestern China. In the study, landscape metrics were applied to evaluate changes in land use and landscape patterns using GeoEye-1 satellite imagery for 2009/2020 and drone imagery for 2019, and redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to clarify the relationship between land-use change trajectories and environmental variables. The 10–30% change in land use observed across each time sequence indicated rapid development in the area, resulting in increased fragmentation and reduced aggregation. The findings showed efficient usage of land resources in Gaoyou. Accessibility to land tended to govern the characteristics of land-use change, with natural variables influencing the type of development. The results also indicated that farmers responded quickly to government subsidies promoting tea and camellia plantations, unplanned road construction was causing fragmentation, and official land-use map content differed from the authors’ observations. Accordingly, the government should make integrated long-term plans for the development of ethnic-minority villages and engage in remote-sensor monitoring of local land-use change.
19 September 2023 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Facing future complex climate changes and global economic fluctuations, land use and land cover (LULC) simulation is recognized as an important initiative to support government decision-making. In this study, a comprehensive LULC simulation modeling framework was proposed based on the PLUS and InVEST models. The Kinki metropolis in Japan was chosen as a case to simulate future LULC changes under four SSP–RCP (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios, and to calculate carbon storage (CS) from 2040 to 2100. The results show that cultivated land will decrease while forests will increase, except under scenario SSP585. The artificial surface will increase except under SSP370. The CS changes are significantly correlated with forest area changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the significance of analyzing and discussing future LULCs under wide-area planning. Spatial pattern, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and Pearson correlation analysis were used to explore the characteristics of the LULC types. The results reveal that the prefectures within the Kinki metropolitan area can be classified into three groups based on the spatial pattern indices change of the artificial surface. Most cultivated land is concentrated in important patches and corridors (area larger than 40,000 m2), accounting for over 90% of the total area, while the number is less than 25%. Forests will become more aggregated, and different MSPA classes will have varying impacts on CS changes. This study comprehensively analyzed and validated the feasibility of the simulation results from different LULC perspectives, comparing the similarities and differences in the development of prefectures. Additionally, this research provides a comprehensive framework for integrating simulated LULC types with policy discussions to better guide LULC planning and policy formulation in metropolitan Kinki.