The relationship between public education spending and economic growth remains contested in developing economies, where quality, not just quantity, of investment may matter most. This study examines whether public education expenditure has driven economic growth in Egypt over 1980–2023, addressing the under-studied role of education quality and testing the robustness of the estimated relationship to structural breaks linked to major reforms. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach together with Zivot–Andrews structural break unit root tests and CUSUM/CUSUMSQ parameter-stability tests, the study models short- and long-run effects of education expenditure on GDP growth, controlling for capital formation, labor participation, trade openness, and foreign investment, and incorporating quality proxies such as student–teacher ratios and completion rates. The bound F-statistic (6.23) exceeds the 5% upper-bound critical value of 3.83 (Narayan in 2005 on small-sample critical values), confirming long-run cointegration, and the error-correction coefficient (−0.835, p < 0.01) indicates rapid adjustment to equilibrium. Physical capital is the strongest driver of long-run growth, while education expenditure shows a weakly negative long-run association (significant at 10%), suggesting allocative inefficiency rather than absent returns; quality proxies (completion rate, student–teacher ratio) show a negative short-run and positive one-period-lagged effect, consistent with a delayed adjustment process. Stability tests confirm the long-run relationship is structurally invariant once short-run dynamics are accounted for. Thus, improving the efficiency and quality of education spending, rather than its volume, appears essential for Egypt to advance Vision 2030, SDG 4, and SDG 8.

The relationship between public education spending and economic growth remains contested in developing economies, where quality, not just quantity, of investment may matter most. This study examines whether public education expenditure has driven economic growth in Egypt over 1980-2023, addressing the under-studied role of edu-cation quality and structural breaks linked to major reforms. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with Zivot-Andrews structural break and CUSUM/CUSUMSQ stability tests, the study models short- and long-run effects of education expenditure on GDP growth, controlling for capital formation, labor par-ticipation, trade openness, and foreign investment, and incorporating quality proxies such as student-teacher ratios and completion rates. The bound F-statistic (6.23) con-firm long-run cointegration, and the error-correction coefficient (-0.835, p< 0.01) indi-cates rapid adjustment to equilibrium. Physical capital is the strongest driver of long-run growth, while education expenditure shows a weakly negative long-run as-sociation (significant at 10%), suggesting allocative inefficiency rather than absent re-turns; quality proxies show significant adjustment effects. Stability tests confirm the long-run relationship is structurally invariant once short-run dynamics are accounted for. Improving the efficiency and quality of education spending, rather than its volume, thus appears essential for Egypt to advance Vision 2030, SDG 4, and SDG 8.

Prior research has examined public expenditure, governance and youth unemployment largely in isolation, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies remain under-covered. This paper therefore examines the effect of government spending on youth unemployment and tests whether governance moderates this link in 20 MENA countries over 1996–2023. We employ the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and dynamic CCEMG (DCCEMG) estimators, complemented by a short-run mean-coefficient analysis with small-T bias correction for dynamic heterogeneous panels as a robustness check. The findings reveal that public spending exerts a significant negative effect on youth unemployment, indicating the crucial role of government spending in creating jobs for young people; where such spending finances productive projects, more employment opportunities are created and youth unemployment falls. By contrast, both governance and its interaction with government expenditure are statistically insignificant, showing that governance indicators exert no indirect or moderating influence on the public expenditure–youth unemployment relationship in MENA. Policymakers in the region should therefore direct government spending towards manufacturing, agricultural projects, and fostering small and medium enterprises, which stimulate GDP and generate employment, thereby alleviating youth unemployment.

This paper applies the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm, recognized for its predictive accuracy, to investigate the relationship between global poverty rates and global carbon emissions. The analysis explores how variations in poverty levels influence environmental carbon emissions. The results demonstrate that the relationship between poverty rates and carbon emissions resembles the production possibility curve, showing an inverse relationship: as poverty rates increase, carbon emissions decrease. Specifically, the k-NN model reveals that a 1% rise in poverty rates leads to a 0.29% reduction in carbon emissions. This outcome reflects the tendency for emissions to fall when economic growth slows. The study concluded that the global quest to eradicate poverty is closely linked to environmental challenges. While reducing poverty contributes to improved living standards, it also threatens to increase emissions, necessitating a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability. The findings highlight the urgent need for policies that reconcile poverty reduction and environmental conservation. A key recommendation is to rely heavily on renewable energy to support economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. This approach enables progress toward poverty reduction and environmental protection.