Guldana Taganova

Mrs. Guldana Taganova


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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29 August 2026 in Mathematics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
ASAssem Shayakhmetova
Assem Shayakhmetova
NTNurbolat Tasbolatuly
Nurbolat Tasbolatuly
GTGuldana Taganova
Guldana Taganova
KBKamalbek Мейрбекович Berkimbayev
Kamalbek Мейрбекович Berkimbayev
ASAnar Sultangaziyeva
Anar Sultangaziyeva
ABAigul Bissarinova
Aigul Bissarinova
Renewable-generation forecasting is a probabilistic time-series problem in which point accuracy alone is insufficient for operational decision-making. This study proposes a physics-informed Bayesian framework for multi-horizon forecasting of solar, wind, and total renewable generation. The task is formulated as a 15-dimensional target–horizon problem covering three generation families and five forecast horizons: H1, H3, H6, H12, and H24. A leakage-safe data construction protocol generates causal predictors from meteorological observations, generation history, calendar cycles, lagged and rolling statistics, ramp descriptors, and physics-informed transformations. PI-BHTF partitions the 422-dimensional predictor space into solar, wind, temporal-calendar, and cross-context components, encodes them through parallel nonlinear branches, and combines the representations using cross-energy gated fusion. Its neural core uses a heteroscedastic predictive head and Monte Carlo dropout to distinguish input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic variability, whereas the final hybrid forecasts are calibrated using residual quantiles computed from a chronologically held-out validation segment. Across three prespecified random seeds, the full PI-BHTF achieved a mean MAE of 0.0797 ± 0.0007 on the internal chronological test and 0.0686 ± 0.0006 on locked external SCADA validation. Performance and calibration varied substantially across target–horizon tasks, including marked short-horizon external undercoverage for wind generation. Component-wise ablation supported semantic feature partitioning and the heteroscedastic head, whereas the physics-informed features, cross-energy gate, and physics-consistency loss did not independently reduce aggregate MAE. PI-BHTF should therefore be interpreted as a reproducibly competitive framework that balances multi-horizon accuracy, structured representation, uncertainty estimation, and external transferability rather than as a universally dominant model.

31 October 2026 in Mathematics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Assel AbdildayevaAssel Abdildayeva
Assel Abdildayeva
GTGuldana Taganova
Guldana Taganova
NSNurgul Shazhdekeyeva
Nurgul Shazhdekeyeva
RTRaigul Tuleuova
Raigul Tuleuova
AAAinagul Adiyeva
Ainagul Adiyeva
ZSZhansaya Sabirova
Zhansaya Sabirova
This study examines zero-shot cross-topology generalization for DC power flow under varying load and renewable generation. A leakage-safe primary protocol uses 3500 physically generated IEEE-30 scenarios for development and internal evaluation, and 1000 IEEE-57 scenarios for external evaluation and reserve. Each bus is represented by 16 operating and topological features. The proposed KENO-Krylov operator combines bounded neural initialization, positive local preconditioning, explicit Kirchhoff residuals, and a 20-step Krylov/CG-like recurrence with a hard slack-bus constraint, using 2523 trainable parameters. On the locked IEEE-30 test, it achieves R2 = 0.999999 and angle MAE 0.00159°. On unseen IEEE-57, it retains R2 = 0.9440 and angle MAE 0.783°, but the median relative KCL residual remains 0.1433. Supplementary paired experiments quantify three renewable-generation regimes, external component ablations, and larger and radial networks. At the highest prescribed renewable scale, mean generation covers 49.63% and 53.25% of demand on IEEE-30 and IEEE-57. On 500 new IEEE-118 scenarios, angle MAE increases to 7.719° and median KCL to 0.974; radial stress tests reveal further accuracy limitations. Learned corrections slightly improve angle MAE over PCG-20, whereas convergent numerical solvers are more accurate and reused Cholesky factorization is faster in the measured setting. Nominal 90% uncertainty calibration does not transfer externally. The evidence supports comparative point-prediction transfer within the stated synthetic DC experiments, not universal topology generalization, operational security, or validity for nonlinear AC systems.