Accurately predicting the energy consumption plays a vital role in battery electric buses (BEBs) route planning and deployment. Based on the algebraic derivative estimation, we present a novel method to forecast the energy consumption in real time. In contrast to the mainstream machine-learning-based methods, the proposed method does not require access to the historical energy consumption data. It eliminates the time-consuming and computationally expensive offline training. Consequently, its prediction performance is not constrained by the quantity and quality of the training data. Moreover, the method can swiftly adapt to new situations not included in the previous driving cycles, which makes it especially suitable for emerging transport modes, e.g., on-demand transit services. In addition, its online execution only involves algebraic calculations, yielding superior calculation efficiency. Using real-world data, we comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed learning-free algebraic method with multiple representative machine-learning-based methods. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed in detail.

Heavy-duty vehicles dominate global freight movement and primarily rely on fossil-derived diesel fuel. However, fluctuations in crude oil prices and evolving emissions regulations have prompted interest in alternative powertrains to enhance fleet energy resiliency. This study paired real-world operational data from a large commercial fleet with high-fidelity vehicle models to evaluate the potential for replacing diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks with alternative powertrain architectures. The baseline vehicle for this analysis is a diesel-powered ICE truck. Alternatives include ICE trucks fueled by bio- and renewable diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG) or hydrogen (H₂), as well as plug-in hybrid (PHEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV). While most alternative powertrains resulted in some payload capacity loss, the overall fleetwide impact was negligible due to underutilized payload capacity for the specific fleet considered in this study. For sleeper cab trucks, CNG-powered trucks achieved the highest replacement potential, covering 85% of the fleet. In contrast, H₂ and BEV architectures could replace fewer than 10% and 1% of trucks, respectively. Day cab trucks, with shorter daily routes, showed higher replacement potential: 98% for CNG, 78% for H₂, and 34% for BEVs. However, achieving full fleet replacement would still require significant operational changes such as route reassignment and enroute refueling, along with considerable improvements to onboard energy storage capacity. Additionally, the higher total cost of ownership (TCO) for alternative powertrains remains a key challenge. This study also evaluated lifecycle impacts across various fuel sources, both fossil and bio-derived. Bio-derived synthetic diesel fuels emerged as a practical option for diesel displacement without disrupting operations. Conversely, H₂ and electrified powertrains provide limited lifecycle impacts under the current energy scenario. This analysis highlights the complexity of replacing diesel ICE trucks with admissible alternatives while balancing fleet resiliency, operational demands, and emissions goals. These results reflect a US-based fleet’s duty cycles, payloads, GVWR allowances, and an assumption of depot-only refueling/recharging. Applicability to other fleets and regions may differ based on differing routing practices or technical features such as battery swapping.

Under China’s dual-carbon targets, battery electric vehicles are widely regarded as a central pathway for passenger-vehicle decarbonization, while battery safety and extreme-temperature performance remain challenges. However, the long-term role of emerging internal combustion engine (ICE) technologies powered by renewable electrofuels (e-fuels) has not been systematically evaluated. This study develops the Transformation of Transportation Energy and Carbon in China (TransTEC-CN) model to assess the decarbonization contribution and cost-effectiveness of e-fuel-based ICE pathways as complements to electrification, including e-gasoline blending, e-methanol internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and e-hydrogen ICEVs under different carbon tax levels, power-sector decarbonization trajectories, and infrastructure conditions. E-gasoline blending can achieve cumulative emission reductions comparable to an extreme carbon-tax electrification benchmark, while incurring approximately one-quarter of the social welfare loss. Adding e-methanol ICEVs to the e-gasoline-dominated policy portfolio can further reduce carbon abatement welfare loss by about 62% while reversing the cumulative emissions reduction by only about 2%.