Fringe projection profilometry (FPP) is established as a dual-role metrological instrument: a calibration source for physics-based analytical models and a validation benchmark for machine learning surrogates of thermoelastic out-of-plane deformation. A three-stage framework is presented with three principal contributions: (i) physics-consistent synthetic data generation via the Kirchhoff–Love plate solution, with boundary condition factor calibrated from FPP phase-unwrapping measurements; (ii) comparative training of five baseline surrogates, including four classical regressors and a physics-free multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a physics-informed neural network (PINN) with residual architecture, physics branch, gating mechanism, and curriculum learning, embedding flexural rigidity, thermal bending moment, and the scaling relation as physics-informed inputs; all neural network models were evaluated across five random seeds to report mean standard deviation; and (iii) external metrological validation against FPP displacement maps at three thermal states ( , , and 172 ) on an aluminum 1060 plate, with measurement uncertainty explicitly characterized. The first state serves as the calibration anchor; the remaining two constitute independent validation points. The PINN achieves RMSE m and MAPE (mean std over five seeds), outperforming the best classical baseline (Gradient Boosting, RMSE m) by in root mean square error (RMSE) and the physics-free MLP (RMSE m) by , with the performance gap attributable to physics embedding rather than network capacity. Against FPP measurements, PINN prediction errors are 0.9%, 0.9%, and 18.2% at the three states—closely matching the calibrated analytical model alone (0.87%, 0.85%, 18.16%), and consistently below the errors of an industrial-grade SolidWorks finite element method model (6.0%, 12.9%, 23.4%), used here as a reference without a documented mesh convergence study (section 4.6.2), rather than a fully verified benchmark, at the two lower states. An out-of-distribution generalization experiment confirms that the PINN degrades less than the best tuned classical model in physically demanding extrapolation zones. These results demonstrate that FPP can anchor both calibration and independent validation of physics-informed surrogates on a single specimen and thermal loading configuration, establishing a reproducible methodology for dimensional stability assessment in precision engineering.