As an essential variable in linking water, carbon, and energy cycles, evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure. Remote sensing, reanalysis, and land surface model-based ET products offer comprehensive alternatives at different spatio-temporal intervals, but their performance varies. In this study, we selected four popular ET global products: The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model version 3.0a (GLEAM3.0a), the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications-Land (MERRA-Land) project, the Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 with the Noah model (GLDAS2.0-Noah) and the EartH2Observe ensemble (EartH2Observe-En). Then, we comprehensively evaluated the performance of these products over China using a stratification method, six validation criteria, and high-quality eddy covariance (EC) measurements at 12 sites. The aim of this research was to provide important quantitative information to improve and apply the ET models and to inform choices about the appropriate ET product for specific applications. Results showed that, within one stratification, the performance of each ET product based on a certain criterion differed among classifications of this stratification. Furthermore, the optimal ET (OET) among these products was identified by comparing the magnitudes of each criterion. Results suggested that, given a criterion (a stratification classification), the OETs varied among stratification classifications (the selected six criteria). In short, no product consistently performed best, according to the selected validation criterion. Thus, multi-source ET datasets should be employed in future studies to enhance confidence in ET-related conclusions.

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) and its individual components’ contributions to the water–energy nexus provide insights into our hydrological cycle in a changing climate. Based on long-term satellite ET data assimilated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), we analyzed changes in ET and its components over the Nile River Basin from 1980 to 2014. The results show a multi-year mean ET of 518 mm·year^–1. The long-term ET trend showed a decline at a rate of 18.8 mm·year^–10. ET and its components showed strong seasonality and the ET components’ contribution to total ET varied in space and time. ET and its components decreased in humid regions, which was related to precipitation deficits. ET increases in arid-semiarid regions were due to water availability from crop irrigation fields in the Nile Plain. Precipitation was the dominant limiting driver of ET in the region. Vegetation transpiration (an average of 78.1% of total ET) dominated the basin’s water fluxes, suggesting biological fluxes play a role in the regional water cycle’s response to climate change. This analysis furthers our understanding of the water dynamics in the region and may significantly improve our knowledge of future hydrological modelling.

Drought severity still remains a serious concern across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to its destructive impact on multiple sectors of society. In this study, the interannual variability and trends in the changes of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on the Penman–Monteith (scPDSI_PM) and Thornthwaite (scPDSI_TH) methods for measuring potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation (P), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were investigated through statistical analysis of modeled and remote sensing data. It was shown that scPDSI_PM and scPDSI_TH differed in the representation of drought characteristics over SSA. The regional trend magnitudes of scPDSI in SSA were 0.69 (scPDSI_PM) and 0.2 mm/decade (scPDSI_TH), with a difference in values attributed to the choice of PET measuring method used. The scPDSI and remotely sensed-based anomalies of P and NDVI showed wetting and drying trends over the period 1980–2012 with coefficients of trend magnitudes of 0.12 mm/decade (0.002 mm/decade). The trend analysis showed increased drought events in the semi-arid and arid regions of SSA over the same period. A correlation analysis revealed a strong relationship between the choice of PET measuring method and both P and NDVI anomalies for monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons. The correlation analysis of the choice of PET measuring method with SST anomalies indicated significant positive and negative relationships. This study has demonstrated the applicability of multiple data sources for drought assessment and provides useful information for regional drought predictability and mitigation strategies.

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

Evapotranspiration (ET), a critical process in global climate change, is very difficult to estimate at regional and basin scales. In this study, we evaluated five ET products: the Global Land Surface Evaporation with the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM, the EartH2Observe ensemble (E2O)), the Global Land Data Assimilation System with Noah Land Surface Model-2 (GLDAS), a global ET product at 8 km resolution from Zhang (ZHANG) and a supplemental land surface product of the Modern-ERA Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA_land), using the water balance method in the Yellow River Basin, China, including twelve catchments, during the period of 1982–2000. The results showed that these ET products have obvious different performances, in terms of either their magnitude or temporal variations. From the viewpoint of multiple-year averages, the MERRA_land product shows a fairly similar magnitude to the ET_w derived from the water balance method, while the E2O product shows significant underestimations. The GLEAM product shows the highest correlation coefficient. From the viewpoint of interannual variations, the ZHANG product performs best in terms of magnitude, while the E2O still shows significant underestimations. However, the E2O product best describes the interannual variations among the five ET products. Further study has indicated that the discrepancies between the ET products in the Yellow River Basin are mainly due to the quality of precipitation forcing data. In addition, most ET products seem to not be sensitive to the downward shortwave radiation.

In a warming climate, drought events are projected to increase in many regions across the world, which would have detrimental impacts on water resources for agriculture activity and human life. Thus, projecting drought changes, especially the frequency of future drought events, is very important for the African continent. This study investigates the future changes in drought events based on the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM6) model in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) datasets for four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5; and three time slices: near future (2020–2039), mid-century (2050–2069), and end-of-century (2080–2099), relative to a historical baseline period (1995–2014). The interannual variability and trends of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on the Penman–Monteith methods for measuring potential evapotranspiration (PET) are used to estimate future droughts. The temporal analysis shows that the drought frequency, intensity, and affected area will increase throughout the 21st century. Among the scenarios, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 project a larger upward trend in drought characteristics than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. The spatial pattern shows drought frequency decreases in humid regions and increases in non-humid regions across Africa. For all SSP scenarios, the projected wetting trend per decade ranges from 0.05 to 0.25, while the drying trend per decade ranges from −0.05 to 0.25. A regional trend analysis revealed key differences in spatial pattern, with varied trend projections of wetter and drier conditions in humid and non-humid regions under all SSP scenarios. Drier conditions are expected to intensify in Southern Africa under all SSP scenarios but are projected to be more intense under either SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. In general, the projected wetter trends in humid areas may favor agricultural production and ecological conservation, and drier trends in non-humid regions may call for the possible adoption of tailor-made drought adaptation strategies and development programmes to minimize impacts.