The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5 m – representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) – a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29–87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

Nonlinear wave transformation in the surf and swash zone is computed by a nonlinear breaking wave model based on the numerical solution of the Boussinesq-type equations. Instead of classical equations, higher-order equations in dispersion as well as in nonlinearity are derived and used inside and outside the surf zone. The Dibajnia and Watanabe transport rate formula involving unsteady aspects of the sand transport phenomenon is adopted for estimating sheet flow sediment transport rates as well as the bed load and suspended load over ripples. For the calculation of the suspended load induced by wave breaking, the Bailard formula is used after the consideration that the only dissipation mechanism is the wave breaking. Runup and rundown as well as sediment transport in the swash zone are incorporated in the model. The model is able to reproduce beach accretion and erosion without the use of an erosion/accretion criterion. The model is validated against large-scale experimental data.

Coral reefs offer natural coastal protection by attenuating incoming waves. Here we combine unique coral disturbance-recovery observations with hydrodynamic models to quantify how structural complexity dissipates incoming wave energy. We find that if the structural complexity of healthy coral reefs conditions is halved, extreme wave run-up heights that occur once in a 100-years will become 50 times more frequent, threatening reef-backed coastal communities with increased waves, erosion, and flooding.