Electrochemical energy storage is pivotal in constructing new-type power systems. However, the large-scale deployment of energy storage stations poses severe safety challenges, particularly the risk of deflagration. The coupling of combustible accumulation within battery systems and the confined structure of storage units can trigger cascading thermal runaway and deflagration accidents. Existing research still falls short in systematically analyzing the deflagration risks and process evolution mechanisms in energy storage stations. To address this gap, this study develops a probabilistic risk assessment model that enables analysis of risk propagation through the integration of fault tree analysis (FTA) with a static fuzzy Bayesian network (BN). The proposed approach delineates the complete risk evolution pathway from battery thermal runaway to deflagration in a confined space. Diagnostic reasoning identifies a dominant risk escalation path initiated by internal short circuits, leading to thermal runaway, flammable gas release, and pressure accumulation due to inadequate pressure relief. Sensitivity analysis highlights gases ejected during thermal runaway (C22) and lack of pressure relief devices or insufficient venting area (C31) as the most influential risk drivers. This study thus offers a practical, model-based framework for enhancing targeted risk prevention and safety resilience in electrochemical energy storage station infrastructure.

SiO₂ aerogel cement composites (SACCs) are promising for building insulation, but how their residual thermal performance evolves after high-temperature exposure remains unclear, limiting fire protection assessment. In this study, SACC specimen with aerogel contents of 0%, 5%, 7%, and 10% were heat-treated at 400, 600, 700, 800, and 1000 °C. After cooling, their post-exposure thermal performance and microstructure were characterized via mass loss, density, thermal conductivity, MIP, and SEM. Results obtained at room temperature showed that with increasing treatment temperature, thermal conductivity first decreases and then increases, reaching a minimum after 700 °C treatment for the A7 specimens (from 0.092 to 0.063 W/(m·K)). Microstructural analysis of cooled specimens revealed that this non-monotonic behavior arises from three heat-induced changes: the cement matrix, aerogel aggregates, and the interfacial gap between them. After treatment at 700 °C, the gap corresponds to a Knudsen number of 0.01–0.02, entering the slip-flow regime. Combined with the low thermal conductivity of the cement matrix, this yields the best insulation. After treatment at 800 °C and above, the gap exceeded 60 μm, shifting heat transfer to the continuum regime and reducing insulation capacity. A thermal conductivity prediction model based on these post-exposure mechanisms agreed well with the experimental results.