Surface subsidence caused by high-intensity coal mining in the western mining area will have a negative impact on the environment. Mining subsidence has the characteristics of large scope, long duration, and strong destructiveness. In order to deeply understand the law of surface movement and deformation under the high-intensity mining of coal mines in western China, taking the Caojiatan 122,106 working face as an example, this study was conducted to obtain the surface movement characteristics and law by the method of surface rock movement measurement. The results showed that the surface subsidence in this study is mainly divided into three stages: start-up stage, active stage, and recession stage, with the active stage characterized by abrupt and intensive settlement. The maximum measured subsidence reached 4.173 m along the strike and 3.350 m along the dip. Numerical simulations further demonstrated strong vertical connectivity within the overburden, with surface subsidence area covering approximately 2/3 of the direct roof area. The predicted maximum subsidence values from simulation were 4.21 m (strike) and 3.36 m (dip), closely aligning with field data. A probability integral model was calibrated using observed data, yielding key parameters: subsidence coefficient = 0.537, main influence angle tangent = 4.435, horizontal movement coefficient = 0.20, inflection point offset = 76.90 m, and propagation angle = 86.2°. This study provides a validated methodology for predicting surface deformation in western mining areas and offers practical insights for subsidence mitigation and land restoration.