Contents Summary 52 I. Introduction 52 II. The Community Response to Extreme Drought (CRED) framework 55 III. Post‐drought rewetting rates: system and community recovery 61 IV. Site‐specific characteristics influencing community resistance and resilience 63 V. Conclusions 64 Acknowledgements 65 References 66 Summary: As climate changes, many regions of the world are projected to experience more intense droughts, which can drive changes in plant community composition through a variety of mechanisms. During drought, community composition can respond directly to resource limitation, but biotic interactions modify the availability of these resources. Here, we develop the Community Response to Extreme Drought framework (CRED), which organizes the temporal progression of mechanisms and plant–plant interactions that may lead to community changes during and after a drought. The CRED framework applies some principles of the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), which proposes that the balance between competition and facilitation changes with increasing stress. The CRED framework suggests that net biotic interactions (NBI), the relative frequency and intensity of facilitative (+) and competitive (−) interactions between plants, will change temporally, becoming more positive under increasing drought stress and more negative as drought stress decreases. Furthermore, we suggest that rewetting rates affect the rate of resource amelioration, specifically water and nitrogen, altering productivity responses and the intensity and importance of NBI, all of which will influence drought‐induced compositional changes. System‐specific variables and the intensity of drought influence the strength of these interactions, and ultimately the system's resistance and resilience to drought.

Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

Most of the species studied in this paper have previously been placed in either Pleurothallis or Lepanthes. However, at one time or another, members of the group have also been placed in the genera Andinia, Brachycladium, Lueranthos, Masdevalliantha, Neooreophilus, Oreophilus, Penducella, Salpistele and Xenosia. Phylogenetic analyses of nuclear ITS and plastid matK sequences indicate that these species form a strongly supported clade that is only distantly related to Lepanthes and is distinct from Pleurothallis and Salpistele. Since this clade includes the type species of Andinia, A. dielsii, and it has taxonomic precedence over all other generic names belonging to this group, Andinia is re-circumscribed and expanded to include 72 species segregated into five subgenera: Aenigma, Andinia, Brachycladium, Masdevalliantha and Minuscula. The required taxonomic transfers are made herein. We hypothesize that convergent evolution towards a similar pollinator syndrome involving deceit pollination via pseudocopulation by Diptera resulted in a similar floral morphology between species of subgenus Brachycladium and species of Lepanthes; hence the prior placement of the species of subgenus Brachycladium in Lepanthes. Species of the re-circumscribed Andinia are confined exclusively to the Andes, ranging from about 1,200 to 3,800 m, from Colombia south to Bolivia, making the generic name very apt. Elevational distributions of the individual clades are discussed in relation to the possible evolutionary diversification of the most species-rich clade, subgenus Brachycladium.

Invasive shrubs in forest understories threaten biodiversity and forest regeneration in the eastern United States. Controlling these extensive monotypic shrub thickets is a protracted process that slows the restoration of degraded forest land. Invasive shrub removal can be accelerated by using forestry mulching heads, but evidence from the western United States indicates that mulching heads can promote exotic species establishment and mulch deposition can reduce native plant species abundance. We compared the effectiveness of the mulching head and the “cut-stump” method for controlling the invasive shrub Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii), as well as their impacts on native plant community recovery, in mixed-hardwood forests of Indiana. After two growing seasons, mulching head treatment resulted in greater L. maackii regrowth and regeneration. The recovery of native plant abundance and diversity following shrub removal did not differ between the two methods. However, mulch deposition was associated with increased abundance of garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), an invasive forb. Increasing mulching head treatment depth reduced L. maackii regrowth, but additional study is needed to determine how it affects plant community responses. The mulching head is a promising technique for invasive shrub control and investigating tradeoffs between reducing landscape-scale propagule pressure and increased local establishment will further inform its utility.

Establishing adequate advanced oak reproduction prior to final overstory removal is crucial for regenerating oak forests in the eastern U.S. Many management approaches exist to this end, but benefits associated with any individual technique can depend on the suite of techniques employed and the geographic location. At four mixed-hardwood upland forest sites in central and southern Indiana, we tested factorial combinations of deer fencing, controlled-release fertilization, and various silvicultural techniques (midstory removal, crown thinning, and a shelterwood establishment cut) for promoting the growth and survival of underplanted red oak seedlings. Crown thinning resulted in slow growth and low survival. Midstory removal and the shelterwood establishment cut were nearly equally effective for promoting seedling growth. Seedling survival was strongly influenced by fencing, and differences in survival between silvicultural treatments were minimal when fencing was employed. Fertilization had minimal effects overall, only increasing the probability that unfenced seedlings were in competitive positions relative to surrounding vegetation. We suggest that underplanting oak seedlings can augment natural reproduction, but the practice should be accompanied by a combination of midstory removal and fencing, at a minimum, for adequate growth and survival.

Artificial pollination of black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) is not practical and timber breeders have historically utilized only open-pollinated half-sib families. An alternate approach called “breeding without breeding,” consists of genotyping open-pollinated progeny using DNA markers to identify paternal parents and then constructing full-sib families. In 2014, we used 12 SSR markers to genotype 884 open-pollinated half-sib progeny harvested from two clonal orchards containing 206 trees, comprised of 52 elite timber selections. Seed was harvested in 2011 from each of two ramets of 23 clones, one upwind and one downwind, based on prevailing wind direction from the west—southwest. One orchard was isolated from wild black walnut and composed of forward selections while the other orchard was adjacent to a natural forest containing mature black walnut composed of backward selections. Isolation significantly increased within-orchard pollination (85%) of the progeny from the isolated orchard compared to 42% from the non-isolated orchard. Neither prevailing wind direction nor seed tree position in the orchard affected paternity patterns or wild pollen contamination. Genetic diversity indices revealed that progeny from both orchards were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium with very little inbreeding and no selfing. A significant level of inbreeding was present among the forward selected parents, but not the first generation (backward selected) parents. Some orchard clones failed to sire any progeny while other clones pollinated upwards of 20% of progeny.