In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R₀ (1.36–2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R₀. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.

Background/Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic profoundly disrupted global respiratory virus circulation, with sharp declines during 2020–2021, followed by a resurgence after the relaxation of public health measures. In South America, post-pandemic respiratory virus dynamics remain insufficiently characterized, particularly in ecologically diverse regions. Arequipa, a high-altitude city in southern Peru, has unique environmental conditions, including marked seasonal temperature variability, that may influence viral transmission. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 21,784 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from symptomatic patients at four major hospitals between June 2021 and September 2023. All samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR. Because routine screening for other respiratory viruses was implemented only in SARS-CoV-2-negative cases during the study period, a subset of SARS-CoV-2-negative samples was subsequently analyzed for influenza A virus (IAV), influenza B virus (IBV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) using VIASURE assays. Viral circulation patterns were evaluated by year, month, and epidemiological week. Meteorological data were obtained from the SENAMHI–La Pampilla station. Logistic regression models were used to assess epidemiological and climatic predictors of viral detection. Results: SARS-CoV-2 positivity declined from 20.0% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2023. Conversely, detection of other respiratory viruses among SARS-CoV-2-negative samples increased from 0.8% in 2021 to 29.0% in 2023 (p < 0.01). Temporal increases in detection were observed during 2022–2023, particularly for IAV and RSV. In exploratory analyses, calendar year and relative humidity were associated with IAV and RSV detection, while age and temperature variables were associated with IBV. Conclusions: Climatic and demographic variables were associated with changes in viral detection for IAV, IBV, and RSV during the post-pandemic transition period in Arequipa. These findings describe patterns of viral detection within SARS-CoV-2-negative symptomatic patients and should be interpreted as surveillance-based observations rather than population-level estimates. Strengthened integrated epidemiological and genomic surveillance will be essential for vaccine planning and outbreak preparedness in the post-pandemic era.