Agricultural production remains highly susceptible to water-related risks, such as drought and flooding. Although hydrologic forecasting systems, such as the National Water Model (NWM), have advanced considerably, their outputs are rarely used for real-time agricultural decision-making. This study developed the Agricultural Water Risk Indicator (AWRI), a framework that translates NWM streamflow forecasts into crop-specific risk assessment indicators. The AWRI framework has three key components: (1) the hydrological threat and exposure characterization based on NWM streamflow forecasts (B1); (2) crop sensitivity by growth stage and water needs (B2); and (3) adaptive capacity reflecting the presence of irrigation or drainage infrastructure (B3). The AWRI was evaluated across three NWM reach IDs covering five farm sites in the Black Belt region of Alabama, USA. The results show that the AWRI captured variations in hydrologic conditions, risk, and crop tolerance across the research sites within the one- to four-week forecast range. Crops in the reproductive stage were especially sensitive. Without resilience measures, up to 55% of the crops simulated at some sites had high-risk AWRI categories. Including irrigation or drainage decreased risk scores by one to two levels. The AWRI tool provides farmers and stakeholders with critical information to support proactive agricultural water management.