The September 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake broke more than 230 years of seismic calm on the Moxi fault, providing a unique opportunity to understand its seismogenic environment, rupture dynamics, and seismic hazard. Using teleseismic body waves, regional strong‐motion observations, GNSS, and InSAR data, we decipher the spatiotemporal rupture evolution of the mainshock. Combining the elastic dislocation model with surface creep, we find that the coseismic slip correlates closely with a locked patch with a loading rate of 9.7 mm/yr, but the creeping rate is insufficient to make up the shallow slip deficit. Notably, the Luding earthquake ruptured only ∼1/4 of the Moxi seismic gap, and it further increased the stress in the unruptured northern part. We thus argue that the Moxi fault has the potential for magnitude 7+ earthquakes in the near future, although geodetic prediction may overestimate the actual seismic moment released by the coseismic rupture.

By combining the seismogenic environment, seismic recurrence periods of strong historical earthquakes, precise locations of small–moderate earthquakes, and Coulomb stress changes of moderate–strong earthquakes, we analyze the potential locking status of a seismically quiet segment of Xianshuihe fault between Daofu County and Kangding City (SDK). The interseismic surface velocities between 1999 and 2017 are obtained from updated global positioning system (GPS) observations in this region. After removing the post-seismic relaxation effect caused by the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred around the fault segment, the observed velocities reveal a pronounced symmetric slip pattern along the SDK trace. The far field slip rate is 7.8 ± 0.4 mm/a, and the fault SDK is confirmed to be in an interseismic silent phase. The optimal locking depth is estimated at 7 km, which is perfectly distributed on the upper edge of the relocated hypocenters. A moment deficit analysis shows cumulative seismic moment between 1955 and 2018, corresponding to an M_w 6.6 event. Finally, based on a viscoelastic deformation model, we find that moderate–strong earthquakes in the surrounding area increase the Coulomb stress level by up to 2 bars on the SDK, significantly enhancing the future seismic potential.

We constructed a rupture model of the 2017 $Mw$ 8.2 Chiapas, Mexico, earthquake by incorporating teleseismic waveform data and static Global Positioning System (GPS) displacements and analyzed the transient postseismic deformation. The high‐slip coseismic rupture region spanned $∼80km$ along strike and $∼70km$ along dip, with a peak slip of 11.6 m, mean stress drop of $∼91bars$⁠, and seismic moment of $2.61×1021N·m$ (⁠$Mw$ 8.2). After six months, postseismic deformation was mainly dominated by afterslip concentrated in several patches around the coseismic rupture, which was consistent with aftershock locations and previous observations of afterslip following large earthquakes. Aftershocks can be mostly explained by Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes induced by the mainshock rupture and afterslip process. We found that afterslip released approximately 54.7% of the coseismic moment and was accommodated $∼98.4%$ aseismically and $∼1.6%$ seismically by aftershocks, indicating that aftershocks were likely driven by afterslip following this great intraplate event. Our results provided important insights into the seismogenic structure and mechanisms for stress accumulation and release in the Mexican subduction zone.