Simulations of wildland fire risk are dependent on the accuracy and relevance of spatial data inputs describing drivers of wildland fire, including canopy fuels. Spatial data are freely available at national and regional levels. However, the spatial resolution and accuracy of these types of products often are insufficient for modeling local conditions. Fortunately, active remote sensing techniques can produce accurate, high-resolution estimates of forest structure. Here, low-density LiDAR and field-based data were combined using randomForest k-nearest neighbor imputation (RF-kNN) to estimate canopy bulk density, canopy base height, and stand age across the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in Minnesota, USA. RF-kNN models produced strong relationships between estimated canopy fuel attributes and field-based data for stand age (Adj. R² = 0.81, RMSE = 10.12 years), crown fuel base height (Adj. R² = 0.78, RMSE = 1.10 m), live crown base height (Adj. R² = 0.7, RMSE = 1.60 m), and canopy bulk density (Adj. R² = 0.48, RMSE = 0.09kg/m³). These results suggest that low-density LiDAR can help estimate canopy fuel attributes in mixed forests, with robust model accuracies and high spatial resolutions compared to currently utilized fire behavior model inputs. Model map outputs provide a cost-efficient alternative for data required to simulate fire behavior and support local management.

Aim: Invasive species prevention and management can be guided by comparisons of invasion risk across space and among species. Species distribution models are widely used to assess invasion risk and typically estimate suitability for species presence. However, suitability for presence may not capture patterns of abundance and impact. We asked how models estimating suitability for presence versus suitability for abundance aligned in their implications for risk assessment.Location: Western United States.Methods: We developed ensembles of species distribution models for presence and for abundance for four invasive plants. We visualized the distribution of presence and abundance in environmental and geographic space and compared model outputs using criteria relevant for decision‐making: a comparison of risk across management units for each species, and a ranking of risk among species for each management unit.Results: We found good overall agreement between models of presence versus abundance in the relative risk across management units and among species. However, the area predicted to be suitable for invasive species presence was often substantially higher than the area predicted to be suitable for abundance, especially within uninvaded management units.Main conclusions: Models of suitability for invasive species presence and abundance yielded similar assessments of relative risk in comparisons across space and species. In addition, we found patterns of presence and abundance in environmental space can guide modelling decisions and model interpretation. Suitability for abundance can improve relative risk assessment when abundance locations occupy a well‐defined subset of the environmental space corresponding to presence. Where abundance locations occur throughout this environmental space, as was particularly striking for Taeniatherum caput‐medusae, suitability for presence may better reflect risk of ongoing population increases and spread. This species is at risk of becoming abundant across a substantial portion of the western United States.

Narrowing the communication and knowledge gap between producers and users of scientific data is a longstanding problem in ecological conservation and land management. Decision support tools (DSTs), including websites or interactive web applications, provide platforms that can help bridge this gap. DSTs can most effectively disseminate and translate research results when producers and users collaboratively and iteratively design content and features. One data resource seldom incorporated into DSTs are species distribution models (SDMs), which can produce spatial predictions of habitat suitability. Outputs from SDMs can inform management decisions, but their complexity and inaccessibility can limit their use by resource managers or policy makers. To overcome these limitations, we present the Invasive Species Habitat Tool (INHABIT), a novel, web-based DST built with R Shiny to display spatial predictions and tabular summaries of habitat suitability from SDMs for invasive plants across the contiguous United States. INHABIT provides actionable science to support the prevention and management of invasive species. Two case studies demonstrate the important role of end user feedback in confirming INHABIT’s credibility, utility, and relevance.

Predictions of habitat suitability for invasive plant species can guide risk assessments at regional and national scales and inform early detection and rapid-response strategies at local scales. We present a general approach to invasive species modeling and mapping that meets objectives at multiple scales. Our methodology is designed to balance trade-offs between developing highly customized models for few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerous species. We developed a national library of environmental variables known to physiologically limit plant distributions and relied on human input based on natural history knowledge to further narrow the variable set for each species before developing habitat suitability models. To ensure efficiency, we used largely automated modeling approaches and human input only at key junctures. We explore and present uncertainty by using two alternative sources of background samples, including five statistical algorithms, and constructing model ensembles. We demonstrate the use and efficiency of the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM 2.1.2], a package in VisTrails, which performs the majority of the modeling analyses. Our workflow includes solicitation of expert feedback on model outputs such as spatial prediction results and variable response curves, and iterative improvement based on new data availability and directed field validation of initial model results. We highlight the utility of the models for decision-making at regional and local scales with case studies of two plant species that invade natural areas: fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum) and goutweed (Aegopodium podagraria). By balancing model automation with human intervention, we can efficiently provide land managers with mapped predicted distributions for multiple invasive species to inform decisions across spatial scales.

Aim: Species distribution models can guide invasive species prevention and management by characterizing invasion risk across space. However, extrapolation and transferability issues pose challenges for developing useful models for invasive species. Previous work has emphasized the importance of including all available occurrences in model estimation, but managers attuned to local processes may be skeptical of models based on a broad spatial extent if they suspect the captured responses reflect those of other regions where data are more numerous. We asked whether species distribution models for invasive plants performed better when developed at national versus regional extents. Location: Continental United States. Methods: We developed ensembles of species distribution models trained nationally, on sagebrush habitat, or on sagebrush habitat within three ecoregions (Great Basin, eastern sagebrush, and Great Plains) for nine invasive plants of interest for early detection and rapid response at local or regional scales. We compared the performance of national versus regional models using spatially independent withheld test data from each of the three ecoregions. Results: We found that models trained using a national spatial extent tended to perform better than regionally trained models. Regional models did not outperform national ones even when considerable occurrence data were available for model estimation within the focal region. Information was often unavailable to fit informative regional models precisely in those areas of greatest interest for early detection and rapid response. Main conclusions: Habitat suitability models for invasive plant species trained at a continental extent can reduce extrapolation while maximizing information on species’ responses to environmental variation. Standard modeling methods can capture spatially varying limiting factors, while regional or hierarchical models may only be advantageous when populations differ in their responses to environmental conditions, a condition expected to be relatively rare at the expanding boundaries of invasive species’ distributions.

Aim: Due to the socioeconomic and environmental damages caused by invasive species, predicting the distribution of invasive plants is fundamental for effectively targeting management efforts. A habitat suitability model (HSM) is a powerful tool to predict potential habitat of invasive species to help guide the early detection of invasive plants. Despite numerous studies of the predictors used in HSMs, there is little consensus about the most appropriate predictors to use in creating ecologically realistic predictions from HSMs.Location: The contiguous United States.Methods: We explore 220 invasive terrestrial plant species' existing HSMs constructed with consistent modelling algorithms, background generation methods, predictor resolution, and geographic extent, and calculate the relative importance of predictors for each species. We sort predictors into eight groups (topography, temperature, disturbance, atmospheric water, landscape water, substrate, biotic interaction, and radiation) and compare the importance of predictor groups by plant lifeforms and phylogenetic relatedness.Results: Human modification and minimum winter temperature were generally the two highest performing individual predictors across the species studied. The highest‐performing predictor groups were disturbance, temperature, and atmospheric water. Across lifeforms, there were minimal differences in the influences of predictor groups, although woody plant models exhibited the largest differences in predictor importance when compared with non‐woody plant models. Additionally, we found no significant relationship between the importance of predictor groups and phylogenetic relatedness.Main Conclusions: This study has implications for informing predictor selection in invasive plant HSMs, leading to more reliable and accurate models of invasive terrestrial plants. Our results emphasize the need to critically select predictors included in HSMs, with special consideration to temperature and disturbance predictors, to accurately predict habitat of invasive plant for detection and response of invasive plant species. With more accurate predictions, managers will be better prepared to address invasive species and reduce their threats to landscapes.