The northern areas of Pakistan are highly vulnerable to climate change due to anthropogenic activities and deforestation, which directly affect the precipitation pattern and variations in temperature. Due to these climate fluctuations, cloud bursts, extreme events like floods and droughts, and the melting of glaciers occur. This study presents the statistical trend analysis of the Dasu watershed in northern Pakistan using a non–parametric approach. In this study, the hydroclimatic data of 16 meteorological stations from 1980 to 2022 were used and the major focus was on an annual Rabi and Kharif seasonal trend analysis. Research revealed that the rate of precipitation increased from the east to west side of the study area in the annual Kharif season, while in the Rabi season, only four stations showed an increasing trend, and the remaining showed a decreasing trend, of which shendor2 showed a significantly decreasing trend with a rate of −3.91 mm/year. On the contrary, annual temperature was declining in the east side of the study area, while three stations showed significantly increasing temperature trends in the central region of the study area. Kharif season showed a decreasing trend in the major part of the study area, while Rabi season’s temperature revealed a significantly increasing trend in most of the stations and a decreasing trend in some eastern parts of the area. Overall, the majority of the study area revealed non–significant warming trends across the annual Rabi season, while the kharif season showed a decreasing trend. Precipitation trends remained largely non–significant but increasingly variable. The findings of this research can be utilized by research institutions and farmers to modify their cropping patterns and cropping calendar to optimize crop productivities.

Pakistan, one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, is extremely vulnerable to climate change. This study analyzes the prospective effects of climate change on the rainfall in the Hub River Watershed (HRW), Sulaiman-Kirthar mountainous range of Pakistan. The projections of five global climate models (GCMs), from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), were used. Analysis of future changes in rainfall patterns was performed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results showed that the historical annual average rainfall was increasing in the HRW. The annual average rainfall is expected to decrease under SSP2–4.5 in HRW. However, under SSP5-8.5, an increasing trend over the next three decades is expected, particularly over the southern part of the HRB. The findings should further our knowledge of how climate change affects the Hub River Basin and motivate stakeholders and planners to develop the best mitigation plans.