Carposina sasakii Matsumura is a significant lepidopteran pest in the Carposinidae family, inflicting substantial damage on stone and pome fruit trees such as jujube, peach, and apple. Using MaxEnt, we assessed the worldwide climatic suitability for C. sasakii and its key environmental drivers, evaluating how climate change impacts dispersal risks. Integrating global occurrence records with 37 environmental variables, the model (AUC = 0.982) quantitatively identifies July precipitation (prec7), minimum average temperatures in April and August (tmin4 and tmin8, respectively), and maximum average temperature in May (tmax5) as critical distribution determinants. Among these, prec7 exhibits the highest contribution (threshold approximately 370 mm). The current suitable habitat spans 10.39 × 10² km², concentrated predominantly in East Asia’s temperate monsoon zone (eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan) and southern North America. Under future climate scenarios, the high-emission pathway (SSP585) will reduce highly suitable areas, while moderately suitable zones expand coastward. In contrast, SSP370 projects a significant, albeit phased, habitat increase with a 19.61% growth rate. Precipitation regimes and extreme temperatures jointly regulate niche differentiation in C. sasakii, whose range shifts toward Southeast Asia and suboptimal regions in Europe and America, underscoring cascading climate change effects. These findings provide a scientific basis for transnational monitoring, early warning systems, and regional ecological governance.