Expected climate change will impact the environmental suitability of different territories. This will be of particular importance for crop sustainability in agriculture, especially in territories that are currently marginal in the biogeographic distribution of cultivated crops; in some cases, the growing conditions may become more suitable due to the projected modified climatic conditions. This paper aims to reconstruct different scenarios of environmental suitability of olive trees under current and future climatic scenarios, considering for the first time a marginal area for this tree plant in Europe. This study represents a first attempt to assess the possible evolution of the suitability of one of the most important Mediterranean crop trees in a current marginal area. This area corresponds to a territory (Oltrepò Pavese, South Lombardy) located at northern edge of the typical geographical distribution. The results of the suitability scenarios, obtained by applying a data-driven method based on predictors representative of the main geological, geomorphological, climatic, and plant cover variables influencing olive tree presence in a territory, show that the future projections at different periods (short-term at 2050; medium-term at 2070; long-term at 2100) suggest an increase in the suitable areas for olive tree cultivation. The increased suitability in this geographical area is related to an increase in air temperature and a parallel decrease in the number of frost days projected for the future scenarios, guaranteeing an increase in suitable areas for olive trees especially in those sectors located at higher latitudes and altitudes than the ones currently more suitable to olive trees. This study could represent a useful basis to implement effective and sustainable strategies of land planning and of mitigation measures to limit the impacts of the climate change effects on cultivation, making the developed method a potential operational tool for the evaluation of the territories that are and will be more adapted to this cultivation according to actual and future climatic scenarios.

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) such as rolled cover crops are increasingly adopted in rainfed vineyards to reduce soil degradation and drought risk, but their effectiveness depends on local soil physical conditions. We compared spontaneous inter-row vegetation managed by mowing (Control) with a cereal-based rolled cover crop (C-R) in two vineyards of the Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy) with contrasting texture, structure, and slope: Canevino (CNV) and Santa Maria della Versa (SMV). From 2021 to 2025, continuous soil moisture monitoring was combined with field measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) and bulk density, interpreted using temporal indicators (MRD, ITS) and a drought index (SWDI) calibrated to field moisture thresholds. During wet phases, average saturation at 50 cm was consistently higher at SMV (about 78 to 84 percent) than at CNV (about 68 to 75 percent). Under water-limited conditions, management contrasts were most evident at SMV: at 50 cm during the post-termination dry phase, saturation remained around 70 percent under C-R versus about 64 percent under the Control, and K_s was higher under C-R (8.32 × 10⁻⁶ m/s in topsoil) than under the Control (7.39 × 10⁻⁶ m/s). At CNV, SWDI at 50 cm indicated a moderate improvement in one agronomic year (median −1.2 under C-R versus −5.3 under the Control in 2021 to 2022), while a full tillage operation in 2024 defined a disturbed phase that was interpreted separately. SWDI occasionally suggested severe drought levels not fully matching field evidence, highlighting the need for site-calibrated reference thresholds in structured fine-textured soils. Overall, soil physical properties set the hydrological envelope, while rolled cover management can enhance buffering and preserve conductive pathways during dry phases; therefore, NbS performance should be evaluated with site-adapted monitoring and cautious inference from temporally autocorrelated time series.

Sloping vineyards are highly susceptible to soil erosion driven by intense rainfall. Evaluating the impact of different soil management practices is crucial for implementing conservation strategies to mitigate this process. This study aims to estimate soil erosion under various inter-row management systems (permanent grass cover, alternating tillage, and different combinations of sown mixtures and termination methods) using a modeling procedure based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The research was conducted in the Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy), a representative hilly vineyard area with medium steepness and clayey soils. Soil erosion was modeled at an annual scale, considering current conditions and three future climate projections (CMCC-CM2-VHR4, MPI-ESM1.2-XR, and EC-Earth3P-HR). Results indicate that annual soil loss is strongly influenced by inter-row management across all rainfall scenarios. Conservative practices—specifically cereal-based cover crops combined with rolling and sub-row mulching—significantly reduced erosion compared to alternating tillage, with average rates dropping from 1.85–3.30 Mg/ha/yr to 0.02–0.04 Mg/ha/yr. These findings underscore the importance of optimized interrow management in reducing soil degradation on sloping terrains.