Lucas Velimirovici

Mr. Lucas Velimirovici


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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2 February 2026 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
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LVLucas Velimirovici
Lucas Velimirovici
EPEugenia Paulescu
Eugenia Paulescu
Paulescu Horia MariusPaulescu Horia Marius
Paulescu Horia Marius
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting has become a key tool for the intelligent management of electrical grids. Since the largest source of error in PV power forecasting originates from uncertainties in solar irradiance prediction, improving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts has emerged as an active research topic. This study evaluates multiple random tree-based model versions using a challenging dataset collected at globally distributed stations, spanning elevations from sea level to nearly 4000 m and covering a wide range of climate classes. The originality of the study lies in the synergistic contribution of two elements: the innovative inclusion of diffuse irradiance among the predictors and a comparative analysis of forecast quality across lowland and mountainous locations. In such environments, accurate solar resource forecasting is particularly important for the intelligent management of stand-alone PV systems deployed at high altitudes and in remote, off-grid areas. Overall, the results identify Extremely Randomized Trees (XTRc) as the best-performing model. XTRc achieves Skill Scores ranging from 0.087 to 0.298 across individual stations. The model accuracy remains high even at mountain stations, provided that sky-condition variability is low.

21 June 2026 in Applied Sciences
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Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
GȘGeorge Știrban
George Știrban
LVLucas Velimirovici
Lucas Velimirovici
EPEugenia Paulescu
Eugenia Paulescu
Surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation represents an essential component of shortwave solar radiation, with important implications for atmospheric chemistry and climate studies. Reliable, high-quality records of surface solar UV radiation are essential for UV-related research and applications; however, ground-based UV observations remain sparse worldwide. This study presents a novel broadband parametric model, based on physical principles, for estimating solar UV irradiance (0.280–0.400 μm) under clear-sky conditions. The model is computationally efficient and suitable for practical applications. The proposed approach is based on the SMARTS2 spectral radiative transfer model and employs an interdependent integration scheme to derive broadband UV irradiance from spectrally resolved shortwave radiation. The model performance is evaluated against high-quality measurements from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and compared with an established parameterization. The proposed model demonstrates improved performance at both validation sites, reducing the mean nRMSE from 8.88% to 7.64% at Izaña and from 60.69% to 29.24% at Payerne, while also substantially decreasing the bias under more challenging atmospheric conditions, although the nRMSE at Payerne remains relatively high. These results highlight the potential of the proposed approach as an efficient and physically consistent tool for clear-sky UV irradiance estimation.