This study examines the impact of changes in marginal state income tax rates on per capita income by comparing income growth in counties on state borders with income growth in adjacent counties across the state border. Compared to a standard cross-sectional analysis, this border-matching technique is a better way to hold constant many factors that can vary for geographical reasons, such as climate, culture, and proximity to markets. The results show that over the 30-year period from 1960 to 1990, states that raised their income tax rates more than their neighbors had slower income growth and, on average, a 3.4% reduction in per capita income.
21 September 2015 in The Annals of Regional Science
One problem with describing election vote shares using ordinary least squares (OLS) is that it ignores the possible presence of spatial error correlation, whereby the errors are correlated in a systematic manner over space. This omission can bias OLS standard errors. We examine the 2004 presidential county vote outcome using OLS and a spatial error model (SEM) that accounts for spatial autocorrelation in the error structure. We find that spatial error correlation is present, that the SEM is superior to OLS for making inferences, and that several factors deemed important to the 2004 election outcome are not significant once the spatial error autocorrelation is taken into account.