On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses $36_{-4}^{+5}{M}_{\odot }$ and $29_{-4}^{+4}{M}_{\odot }$; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be $<0.7$ (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is $410_{-180}^{+160}\mathrm{Mpc}$, corresponding to a redshift $0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03}$ assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of $610{\mathrm{deg}}^2$, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass $62_{-4}^{+4}{M}_{\odot }$ and spin $0.67_{-0.07}^{+0.05}$. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

We compare GW150914 directly to simulations of coalescing binary black holes in full general relativity, including several performed specifically to reproduce this event. Our calculations go beyond existing semianalytic models, because for all simulations—including sources with two independent, precessing spins—we perform comparisons which account for all the spin-weighted quadrupolar modes, and separately which account for all the quadrupolar and octopolar modes. Consistent with the posterior distributions reported by Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016)] (at the 90% credible level), we find the data are compatible with a wide range of nonprecessing and precessing simulations. Follow-up simulations performed using previously estimated binary parameters most resemble the data, even when all quadrupolar and octopolar modes are included. Comparisons including only the quadrupolar modes constrain the total redshifted mass $M_z\in [64M_{\odot }-82M_{\odot }]$, mass ratio $1/q=m_2/m_1\in [0.6,1]$, and effective aligned spin ${\chi }_{\mathrm{eff}}\in [-0.3,0.2]$, where ${\chi }_{\mathrm{eff}}=({\mathbf{S}}_1/m_1+{\mathbf{S}}_2/m_2)·\widehat{\mathbf{L}}/M$. Including both quadrupolar and octopolar modes, we find the mass ratio is even more tightly constrained. Even accounting for precession, simulations with extreme mass ratios and effective spins are highly inconsistent with the data, at any mass. Several nonprecessing and precessing simulations with similar mass ratio and ${\chi }_{\mathrm{eff}}$ are consistent with the data. Though correlated, the components’ spins (both in magnitude and directions) are not significantly constrained by the data: the data is consistent with simulations with component spin magnitudes $a_{1,2}$ up to at least 0.8, with random orientations. Further detailed follow-up calculations are needed to determine if the data contain a weak imprint from transverse (precessing) spins. For nonprecessing binaries, interpolating between simulations, we reconstruct a posterior distribution consistent with previous results. The final black hole’s redshifted mass is consistent with $M_{f,z}$ in the range $64.0M_{\odot }-73.5M_{\odot }$ and the final black hole’s dimensionless spin parameter is consistent with $a_f=0.62–0.73$. As our approach invokes no intermediate approximations to general relativity and can strongly reject binaries whose radiation is inconsistent with the data, our analysis provides a valuable complement to Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016)].

Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than ∼0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of ${35}_{-3}^{+5}$ ${\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$ and $30_{-4}^{+3}$ ${\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate $<0.65$ and a secondary spin estimate $<0.75$ at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

We present phenompnr, a frequency-domain phenomenological model of the gravitational-wave signal from binary-black-hole mergers that is tuned to numerical relativity (NR) simulations of precessing binaries. In many current waveform models, e.g., the “phenom” and “eobnr” families that have been used extensively to analyse LIGO-Virgo GW observations, analytic approximations are used to add precession effects to models of nonprecessing (aligned-spin) binaries, and it is only the aligned-spin models that are fully tuned to NR results. In phenompnr we incorporate precessing-binary numerical relativity results in two ways: (i) we produce the first numerical relativity-tuned model of the signal-based precession dynamics through merger and ringdown, and (ii) we extend a previous aligned-spin model, phenomd, to include the effects of misaligned spins on the signal in the coprecessing frame. The numerical relativity calibration has been performed on 40 simulations of binaries with mass ratios between $1:1$ and $1:8$, where the larger black hole has a dimensionless spin magnitude of 0.4 or 0.8, and we choose five angles of spin misalignment with the orbital angular momentum. phenompnr has a typical mismatch accuracy within 0.1% up to mass ratio $1:4$ and within 1% up to mass ratio $1:8$.

LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the early inspirals of stellar-mass black holes that will ultimately venture into the ground-based detectors’ view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA’s discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This White Paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome.